AI · resolved market
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $29B?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x197b0244370a5cfabc9976d26748b6ebc15b3900b8a76ede6ab16e42a47f8b9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68f7…8aacbacked Yes | 49c | 1,580$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.93 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +150.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 28c | 1,138$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.26 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 75c | 1,064$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.21 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49f2…d7b4backed No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe32b…626ebacked No | 14c | 974.77$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.46 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -78%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 62c | 711.09$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.67 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…0f13backed No | 24c | 439.2$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.62 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702b…afd4backed No | 36c | 360.26$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed No | 13c | 332.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda1b…e87abacked Yes | 65c | 289.94$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.55 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 44c | 287.71$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.63 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 33c | 228.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…b9ffbacked Yes | 69c | 172.06$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 69c | 171.79$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.83 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 77c | 170.74$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 15c | 164.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…afb4backed No | 13c | 120.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 25c | 108$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -61%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 29c | 104.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked Yes | 79c | 102.92$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ef…f77fbacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 36c | 94.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 39c | 85.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04de…91b5backed Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd8…7aedbacked No | 28c | 72.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 70c | 67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed No | 32c | 62.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7a…dc52backed Yes | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe308…309cbacked No | 38c | 53.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a1…ddbcbacked Yes | 68c | 51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b30…100fbacked No | 22c | 50.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2efe…e43abacked No | 41c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed No | 30c | 47.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 51c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…339ebacked No | 29c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…9828backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 32c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Yes | 77c | 33.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +9.8wins | +0.25per pick | 49cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…6dfebacked Yes | 56c | 32.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…0fe1backed No | 57c | 31.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…806ebacked Yes | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 52c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1a…4e93backed Yes | 70c | 20.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…864bbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6e…9f98backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0855…ae26backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ae…ac55backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…8c94backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6159backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.9wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…6254backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x239f…8b82backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -4.7wins | -0.42per pick | 61cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…2af7backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 58c | 18.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 76c | 15.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $29B?this page
- Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $25B?Yes won
- Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $26B?Yes won
- Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $27.5B?Yes won
- Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $30B?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.