IPO · resolved market
Will Bending Spoons' market cap be between $19B and $22B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x713447b5c78b7ed635cb1b2700363cd8d866373f5e16d563a803944c1259fc36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,611
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54fd…4ac3backed No | 65c | 970.27$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.63 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 19c | 833.89$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.52 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8452…fcf7backed No | 75c | 763.44$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b4…6709backed Yes | 31c | 419.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.2 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 10c | 358.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 335.85$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.54 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…d620backed Yes | 4c | 299.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe32b…626ebacked Yes | 18c | 245$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 35c | 146$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda8d…9377backed Yes | 35c | 114.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 73.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 71c | 70.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 30c | 58.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 92 | 15.2%14 W · 78 L | -16.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…2fffbacked Yes | 35c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb0…2b36backed Yes | 35c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf0…9180backed Yes | 35c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fa…d3fbbacked Yes | 35c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…025abacked Yes | 35c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa74b…3241backed Yes | 35c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe518…f0fcbacked Yes | 35c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…4e33backed Yes | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bending Spoons' market cap be between $19B and $22B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Bending Spoons not IPO before September 2026?No won
- Will Bending Spoons' market cap be between $16B and $19B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Bending Spoons' market cap be between $22B and $25B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Bending Spoons' market cap be between $25B and $28B at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will Bending Spoons' market cap be greater than $28B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Bending Spoons' market cap be less than $16B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.