IPO · resolved market
Will Bending Spoons' market cap be between $25B and $28B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f7ec266ee270da3e29831ec10d7e3f5341292aa6c0bdb04231fb166b3d1d493
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 63c | 2,382$1,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 13c | 1,538$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.94 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b4…6709backed Yes | 17c | 481.15$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.49 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…4ac3backed Yes | 54c | 211.66$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.37 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 78c | 166.4$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 49c | 103.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 42c | 83.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 37cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 27c | 73.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 51c | 46.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bending Spoons' market cap be between $25B and $28B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Bending Spoons not IPO before September 2026?No won
- Will Bending Spoons' market cap be between $16B and $19B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Bending Spoons' market cap be between $19B and $22B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Bending Spoons' market cap be between $22B and $25B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Bending Spoons' market cap be greater than $28B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Bending Spoons' market cap be less than $16B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.