AI · resolved market
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 (High)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbda1d15b7ad86bc853e86673c24642b5c44c9e77629f758a7ab8e5fae80ac40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 78c | 5,650$4,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.12 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 7c | 4,673$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,328$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe32b…626ebacked Yes | 32c | 2,136$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.03 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -78%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed Yes | 22c | 1,135$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8f…d0debacked Yes | 32c | 781.25$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…6be6backed Yes | 22c | 604.26$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c01…e01bbacked Yes | 19c | 550.73$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes | 14c | 546$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.44 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebfa…30aebacked Yes | 34c | 532.8$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 6c | 479.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7a…86cfbacked Yes | 33c | 358.54$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed No | 70c | 338.88$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.14 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +5.1wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7650…fac1backed No | 68c | 332.44$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.18 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed Yes | 5c | 326.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…928dbacked Yes | 41c | 302.06$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…1763backed No | 68c | 300.74$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.74 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef80…7edfbacked No | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 17c | 290.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d3…af02backed Yes | 20c | 272.95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bf…3884backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8b…e4d6backed No | 70c | 236.46$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…04ffbacked Yes | 33c | 233.7$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 198.73$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.64 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 29c | 194$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.32 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 78c | 167.85$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa426…1a95backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…5528backed No | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 130.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 77c | 120.85$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bf…147fbacked Yes | 31c | 111$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a77…9ef1backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba6…5530backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f37…c150backed Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e36…6253backed No | 78c | 88$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 80.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes | 20c | 80.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe46a…e143backed No | 61c | 74.53$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b0…1281backed No | 66c | 67.36$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 70c | 65.57$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…17adbacked No | 57c | 62.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf49c…2bffbacked Yes | 21c | 62.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdae…c02ebacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b95…a426backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20e8…cf1cbacked Yes | 33c | 59.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4186…ee77backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +5.0wins | +0.39per pick | 54cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0f…e262backed Yes | 42c | 49.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…17a6backed No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8c…aaddbacked No | 72c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 32c | 45.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8a…e512backed No | 78c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 34c | 40.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe10…f7efbacked Yes | 42c | 35.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e0…9e2dbacked Yes | 57c | 35.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 43cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…0123backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 75c | 28.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53d1…6b67backed Yes | 47c | 24.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb00a…001bbacked No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…275fbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1377…af39backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…96d5backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc364…9653backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 74c | 14.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 (High)?this page
- Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 150 (High)?Yes won
- Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 185 (High)?No won
- Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 190 (High)?No won
- Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 250 (High)?No won
- Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 (High)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.