AI · resolved market
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 150 (High)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bda69faaa8efd3ac3e0a8d97c35adf7ef1f27f8dbfa412f17aa8055c2969c52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 3c | 7,914$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 2c | 7,200$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.4 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c1…384ebacked No | 8c | 1,621$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7577…8fb9backed No | 9c | 1,000$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 704$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 4c | 613.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b95…a426backed No | 7c | 270$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2915…6cdbbacked No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6101…f85ebacked No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 7c | 192$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c3…cf5cbacked No | 7c | 141$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 8c | 132.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…d33bbacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 20c | 111$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…d1c6backed Yes | 79c | 108.67$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…e41fbacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ed…0ce8backed No | 21c | 96.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…fcffbacked No | 21c | 82.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbafd…8669backed Yes | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…5ae1backed Yes | 67c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 33c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x731a…033fbacked Yes | 66c | 17.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 150 (High)?this page
- Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 185 (High)?No won
- Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 190 (High)?No won
- Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 (High)?No won
- Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 250 (High)?No won
- Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 (High)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.