Music · resolved market
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be at least 450k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0de46b27ad846a9e1085a8d2e81fc71c593187086864b769c0f62d3909511d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x89e0…9412backed Yes | 41c | 1,850$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.24 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 1,669$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.59 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc5…4626backed No | 1c | 1,260$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 718.85$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.38 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 8c | 614.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked Yes | 12c | 424$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.42 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 59c | 352.05$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b58…1e09backed Yes | 77c | 340.42$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 14c | 264.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 32c | 259.88$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.44 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…3c17backed Yes | 10c | 254.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +943.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 34c | 243.86$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.22 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 62c | 242.4$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.51 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Yes | 21c | 234.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.25 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 73c | 225.48$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.02 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd947…648cbacked Yes | 51c | 219.32$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe32b…626ebacked No | 39c | 200.3$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 27c | 180$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 32c | 173.16$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.93 | 81 | 28.4%23 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -50%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Yes | 64c | 155.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.92 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd56…0b8dbacked Yes | 35c | 141.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +182.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…9e97backed Yes | 69c | 140$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…ebe5backed Yes | 80c | 125.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 60c | 119.92$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.51 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 108$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 33c | 106.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdea5…c77bbacked Yes | 73c | 99.49$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 90$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.36 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 23c | 89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 29c | 84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…6e31backed No | 71c | 80$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 31c | 79.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 43c | 77.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 17c | 76.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 32c | 70.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 28c | 63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…8a50backed Yes | 38c | 62.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2966…de11backed Yes | 39c | 62.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +159.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfb…1a95backed Yes | 40c | 49.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb84…a2dfbacked Yes | 37c | 49.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +216%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f90…bce3backed Yes | 56c | 46.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 46c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 50c | 39.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 40c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e8…b7b3backed No | 60c | 33.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…d2f2backed Yes | 40c | 31.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b6…7c36backed No | 63c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf980…14b0backed No | 63c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 56c | 21.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…66ecbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0855…ae26backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x734b…2a2cbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be at least 450k?this page
- Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be between 200k and 250k?No won
- Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be between 250k and 300k?No won
- Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k?No won
- Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k?No won
- Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k?No won
- Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be less than 200k?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.