Music · resolved market
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c6e62c6659b09d685292c944a69cb8487b3a6833a81ad29e8e117bf6f86039d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 53c | 4,066$2,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,154.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 47c | 3,853$1,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,041.56 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Yes | 58c | 2,858$1,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,659.37 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 48c | 1,725$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.08 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 720.2$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.99 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e0…9412backed Yes | 31c | 489.03$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.32 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 432.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 40c | 352.05$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 43c | 348.39$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.55 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Yes | 58c | 215$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.36 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 16c | 197.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 56c | 166.4$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.36 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 42c | 154$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.96 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 150$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.9 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 57c | 143.16$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.31 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…9e97backed Yes | 26c | 140$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed No | 75c | 138.36$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 40c | 137.36$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed No | 65c | 136.57$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.83 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 51c | 108.7$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 40c | 108.01$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.27 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 17c | 106.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…ce1abacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 26c | 92.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -70%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 90$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 90$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 76c | 85.62$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 58c | 77.09$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 57c | 76.51$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…2ad3backed Yes | 33c | 75.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 71.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 81 | 28.4%23 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -50%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0c79…0ad2backed Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…c267backed No | 76c | 65.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed Yes | 37c | 43.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 72c | 38.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 46c | 26.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k?this page
- Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be at least 450k?Yes won
- Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be between 200k and 250k?No won
- Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be between 250k and 300k?No won
- Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k?No won
- Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k?No won
- Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be less than 200k?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.