Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbe834154a7b7d8ec4ccd0f5468b58a113bdbf0e7c0a41876ae8b014ab94631b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb99b…1009backed No | 8c | 2,621$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4e…f455backed Yes | 69c | 1,569$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe32b…626ebacked No | 18c | 1,284$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.11 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 57c | 914.94$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.36 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 56c | 725.51$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.65 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 16c | 660.55$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.08 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 34c | 624.18$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.41 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 12c | 565.37$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.41 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaf…eff6backed Yes | 74c | 500$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.68 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 40c | 456.63$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.12 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 441$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.51 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…648cbacked Yes | 50c | 401.3$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.95 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +10.8wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 38c | 284.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.4 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99ae…5274backed No | 43c | 268.01$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 17c | 232.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 31c | 220.45$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 68c | 200.27$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 30c | 193.82$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.87 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 40c | 176.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe340…39f9backed No | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 52c | 143.97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.63 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 50c | 137.92$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…77bdbacked No | 11c | 135$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x797e…38b9backed Yes | 70c | 131.76$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 31c | 122.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 121.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 38c | 118$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e32…1c37backed No | 14c | 111.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 20c | 105.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 23c | 83.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda66…3f38backed Yes | 61c | 82.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 17c | 80.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 31c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 47c | 64.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 30c | 64.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72e2…f168backed No | 20c | 62.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 26c | 61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 48c | 56.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 47c | 56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed No | 41c | 54.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 71c | 53.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1919…1e16backed Yes | 73c | 52.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f92…15d2backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86eb…5864backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c3…b5e5backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 21c | 49.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94c4…4080backed Yes | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9b…e768backed Yes | 54c | 43.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…efafbacked Yes | 57c | 40.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -6.6wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f05…ba7bbacked Yes | 76c | 40.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6406…bc04backed Yes | 46c | 35.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 41c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9de0…1886backed No | 43c | 32.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 50c | 32.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 57c | 32.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbd…0daebacked No | 42c | 28.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74fc…492cbacked Yes | 72c | 27.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…cefbbacked Yes | 74c | 27.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…2b18backed Yes | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bf…45bdbacked Yes | 65c | 24.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 55c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b7…dbaabacked Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 70c | 21.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…5e27backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 54c | 19.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 56c | 19.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 77c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?this page
- Will Ben Midgley win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will David Jones win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Garrett Mason win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will James Libby win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Owen McCarthy win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Robert Wessels win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.