World Politics · resolved market
Will Giuseppe Tortora win the 2026 Pompei mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20f28a09ce7661cd3941a956bb11de141d8c01ca994b850dace6839373c25a6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 58c | 1,733$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.93 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +16.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 39c | 1,068$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.78 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa535…9e5ebacked Yes | 58c | 692$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Yes | 54c | 562.13$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.58 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 52c | 460.88$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.36 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 57c | 352.59$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.14 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 49c | 316.12$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.51 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 52c | 304.13$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.4 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 42c | 264.14$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.94 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 40c | 234$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.2 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed No | 25c | 223.31$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 42c | 222.21$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.33 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 40c | 221.55$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.62 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…588cbacked Yes | 56c | 217$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.48 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 43c | 196.42$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.57 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 42c | 178$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.35 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 46c | 176$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.96 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 27c | 165$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…4c79backed Yes | 57c | 157$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.51 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 42c | 149$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 45c | 139.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 41c | 139$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.34 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 30c | 130$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 128$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424c…82b5backed Yes | 58c | 127$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Yes | 60c | 127$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 42c | 124.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 118$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 42c | 106.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda30…74dbbacked No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…b083backed Yes | 58c | 96$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…fbf3backed No | 40c | 89.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 43c | 86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc2…4fc4backed No | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 41c | 77.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 46c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe32b…626ebacked No | 31c | 73.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d6…09edbacked Yes | 58c | 64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 41c | 59.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x48b8…9e5cbacked No | 42c | 52.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 51.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…339ebacked No | 25c | 48.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba4f…75a4backed Yes | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…a64abacked Yes | 59c | 42.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d48…678cbacked No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 29c | 38.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 30c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22dc…7b11backed No | 41c | 34.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd70…2168backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 69c | 33.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Yes | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…a7c0backed Yes | 59c | 27.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…b306backed No | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 44c | 25.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…ed40backed Yes | 59c | 25.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…7939backed No | 52c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.34per pick | 61cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc873…f963backed No | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 69c | 17.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Giuseppe Tortora win the 2026 Pompei mayoral election?this page
- Will Salvatore Alfano win the 2026 Pompei mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.