World Politics · resolved market
Will Salvatore Alfano win the 2026 Pompei mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39d9d2fe9d2cfdb912e4c201b722300eae00c96c0379dbd6077d812c2aed302c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 29c | 1,571$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.52 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +16.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 472.85$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.62 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked Yes | 38c | 434$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.93 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 44c | 400$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 22c | 283.85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.45 | 110 | 20.9%23 W · 87 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 57c | 228$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.04 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 225$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.27 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Yes | 27c | 214.81$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 71c | 212$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.48 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 71c | 210$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 43c | 207$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.21 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 56c | 199.22$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.86 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 52c | 197$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.42 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 56c | 178$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.72 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 71c | 177$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -66%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 150.4$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.69 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 42c | 147.84$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 56c | 143$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.92 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 135$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.72 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 68c | 130$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 128$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.48 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 72c | 125$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 57c | 124.79$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.04 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 68c | 121.05$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 60c | 115.6$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.34 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 42c | 108.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca50…7691backed Yes | 28c | 90.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 43c | 86.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1383…2541backed No | 70c | 84.68$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22dc…7b11backed Yes | 46c | 72.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfc…9cf9backed No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x319e…1068backed No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…131ebacked No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 73cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae5…6079backed Yes | 46c | 63.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 70c | 62.62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd402…b697backed Yes | 40c | 61.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 56c | 61.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed No | 69c | 59.34$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…b306backed No | 57c | 58.43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 71c | 53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 66c | 49.43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 55c | 45.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 71c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…7939backed No | 61c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.34per pick | 61cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…864bbacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb20…025abacked No | 61c | 37.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 68c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 42c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x262f…0496backed No | 61c | 24.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…ea65backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…97c1backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…9828backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…fbf3backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ea…c810backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f07…560ebacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9b…8cebbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29e4…16a6backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3831…afedbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c6…1f92backed No | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Salvatore Alfano win the 2026 Pompei mayoral election?this page
- Will Giuseppe Tortora win the 2026 Pompei mayoral election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.