Movies · resolved market
Will "Enola Holmes 3" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bfdb92f6d6333ddffeba94dd021ed1e940aad86d3ca72e0634a586d7b35dbce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66cb…3dd2backed Yes | 67c | 4,731$3,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,544.87 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe32b…626ebacked No | 21c | 3,031$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x237b…cdecbacked Yes | 70c | 2,307$1,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.04 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 35c | 821.21$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.19 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -79%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 21c | 693.27$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.83 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 70c | 470$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.61 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 26c | 337.94$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.75 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked No | 19c | 330.15$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.39 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…4127backed No | 10c | 310.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 6c | 281.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 18c | 267.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 19c | 265.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 28c | 261$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.9 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 20c | 223.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.31 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 42c | 220.95$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.59 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 19c | 199.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb93f…9a79backed No | 24c | 174.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed No | 42c | 166.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.69 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 19c | 159$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 15c | 135.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 18c | 113$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 90$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 24c | 71.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 19c | 67.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 30c | 59.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 22c | 53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 30c | 49.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 79c | 45.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed No | 73c | 44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 75c | 36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked Yes | 67c | 22.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Enola Holmes 3" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?this page
- Will "Little Brother" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?No won
- Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.