Movies · resolved market
Will "Little Brother" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x193c1744605551ee72c38f402ac173649ac43ec954f9d4059a1cd994a282ecf9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 33c | 3,347$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.28 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66cb…3dd2backed No | 71c | 1,790$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.86 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 694.57$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.02 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 38c | 558.15$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.01 | 112 | 29.5%33 W · 79 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Yes | 23c | 505.79$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.25 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 39c | 384.88$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.09 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…5250backed Yes | 51c | 373$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.37 | 149 | 36.9%55 W · 94 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 340$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 113 | 39.8%45 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 275$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.88 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes | 18c | 263.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 34c | 242$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.7 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab6…2641backed Yes | 21c | 234.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237b…cdecbacked No | 48c | 232.85$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.05 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 11c | 224.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.58 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 220.96$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.91 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 76c | 193.97$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.44 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 37c | 192.42$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.59 | 332 | 23.8%79 W · 253 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 178.15$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.64 | 1,415 | 8%113 W · 1,302 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…4127backed Yes | 9c | 168.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…72eebacked Yes | 25c | 155$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…4282backed Yes | 54c | 151.96$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 63c | 144.44$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.93 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 69c | 134.57$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.36 | 885 | 33.6%297 W · 588 L | -76.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 47c | 114.7$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 269 | 6.3%17 W · 252 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb93f…9a79backed Yes | 25c | 109.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 57c | 105$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -5.7wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 21c | 86.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 78c | 86.45$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 17c | 75.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.82 | 486 | 36%175 W · 311 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 56c | 56.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 50c | 54.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…f87cbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 41.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 46c | 34.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 147 | 39.5%58 W · 89 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 59c | 25.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 1,223 | 17.8%218 W · 1,005 L | -125.3wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 59c | 22.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked No | 76c | 22.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 77 | 20.8%16 W · 61 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Little Brother" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?this page
- Will "Enola Holmes 3" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?Yes won
- Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.