Movies · resolved market
Will "Toy Story 5" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 39m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc0842a1896379b6961d5c8050381c8d17416d5b0cf070d523e063aeccacaca9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 69c | 8,611$5,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,637.9 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 32c | 6,711$2,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,144.99 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 68c | 5,050$3,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.51 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 17c | 1,956$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.63 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed No | 11c | 1,882$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.78 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6f…dfb9backed No | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…c234backed Yes | 64c | 1,309$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.9 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 1,300$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 266 | 6.4%17 W · 249 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe32b…626ebacked No | 28c | 1,250$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed No | 27c | 935$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.45 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 22c | 855.99$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.99 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 847.08$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.21 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7056…c95cbacked Yes | 40c | 673.55$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.4 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +6.0wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 45c | 605.05$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.41 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf4…7021backed Yes | 68c | 567.76$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 26c | 500$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 26c | 479$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.46 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…a1d3backed No | 31c | 410.42$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 8c | 340.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 20c | 273.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -7.8wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 29c | 240$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 30c | 201.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.58 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfd…fb46backed No | 32c | 201.06$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed No | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…8bc9backed Yes | 69c | 199.99$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed Yes | 68c | 199.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 47c | 188.67$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.67 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 75c | 171$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 21c | 160.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…990fbacked Yes | 35c | 131.32$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.36 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 114.06$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.52 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 17c | 107$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bef…3b06backed Yes | 79c | 106.38$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 65c | 104$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05c…aa9bbacked No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed No | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 20c | 71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes | 76c | 65.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa5…b7a7backed No | 50c | 65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 80c | 64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x171b…ddcdbacked No | 39c | 63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d40…a874backed No | 30c | 57.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked No | 50c | 56.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…1e17backed Yes | 36c | 43.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 41c | 43.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d8…372abacked Yes | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 34c | 41.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb557…ef84backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 35c | 38.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20aa…e26bbacked No | 32c | 33.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 36c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31ff…98b4backed No | 61c | 32.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ef…ebcabacked Yes | 67c | 30.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbd…ceeabacked Yes | 77c | 25.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1500…2105backed Yes | 76c | 22.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 75cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5588…2a46backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb26…06f7backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Toy Story 5" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 39m?this page
- Will "Toy Story 5" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 42m?No won
- Will "Toy Story 5" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 42m and 45m?No won
- Will "Toy Story 5" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 48m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.