Movies · resolved market
Will "Toy Story 5" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 42m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9100426c9289e0d0a2008a9b67b318a6de7d498720c499acb2fa5b980f5093c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,441
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,441 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…c234backed Yes | 13c | 1,750$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.5 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 19c | 701.63$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.35 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7056…c95cbacked Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +6.0wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 479$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.44 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 24c | 417$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.01 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 4c | 413.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 19c | 399.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 28c | 357.23$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.6 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed Yes | 12c | 302.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc245…bccbbacked Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6f…dfb9backed Yes | 33c | 299.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 250$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 20c | 211$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -7.8wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 160.36$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355d…1052backed Yes | 16c | 119.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 115$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 94.59$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 16c | 65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 16c | 65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked No | 50c | 65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa5…b7a7backed Yes | 50c | 65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d40…a874backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 74c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 80c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Toy Story 5" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 42m?this page
- Will "Toy Story 5" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 42m and 45m?No won
- Will "Toy Story 5" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 48m?No won
- Will "Toy Story 5" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 39m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.