Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50cacbab136ddc10400b43c4509e3e3553968027eded0736ab1413caa0e85f6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe32b…626ebacked No | 11c | 2,841$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.38 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 6c | 1,720$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.96 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 7c | 1,597$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.33 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed No | 12c | 1,519$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.05 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 10c | 1,344$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.25 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e5…b3a5backed No | 9c | 1,098$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 7c | 1,031$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.75 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a3…9b79backed No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 51c | 985.62$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.63 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x862b…8c23backed Yes | 33c | 962.6$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…337bbacked No | 6c | 839.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 73c | 710.37$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.6 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 14c | 708.03$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.12 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 10c | 706.4$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.11 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed No | 6c | 660$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 6c | 615.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…b3a6backed Yes | 75c | 557.51$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.07 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 72c | 544.78$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.04 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 12c | 541$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.41 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 10c | 412.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…1362backed Yes | 70c | 345.3$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.79 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 6c | 271.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 73c | 261.26$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.77 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 8c | 249.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…e69bbacked No | 30c | 245$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…efafbacked Yes | 73c | 241.21$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.02 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -6.6wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 10c | 228$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 9c | 222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 11c | 220.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 52c | 210$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.08 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 69c | 206.08$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.79 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed No | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa784…3605backed No | 28c | 195.81$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 17c | 167.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 9c | 161$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 15c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 123 | 30.9%38 W · 85 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa067…a429backed Yes | 53c | 148.36$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…9b6cbacked No | 12c | 140$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 70c | 133.01$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc4…a38dbacked Yes | 67c | 123$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74fc…492cbacked Yes | 78c | 111.49$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 14c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 10c | 109$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9448…b72ebacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 11c | 95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 30c | 92.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2955…0738backed Yes | 74c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 16c | 87.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 33c | 81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 22c | 65.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x489a…fff2backed No | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 73c | 59.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 17c | 59.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 27c | 52.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7593…e677backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe02d…bcffbacked No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…deeebacked Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 27c | 48.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 55c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 34c | 42.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 133 | 17.3%23 W · 110 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 30c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…a3bdbacked Yes | 71c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 70c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b69…42cfbacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x344d…cd28backed No | 26c | 38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…201bbacked Yes | 72c | 32.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba1…cf36backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed Yes | 71c | 29.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 69c | 26.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…2280backed Yes | 76c | 26.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b3…109fbacked Yes | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c50…22fdbacked Yes | 53c | 21.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -62%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd927…6693backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb333…e295backed Yes | 73c | 17.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d5…188fbacked Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Yes | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?this page
- Will Brandon Sowers be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?No won
- Will Derrick Gallego be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?No won
- Will Gina Swoboda be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?No won
- Will Jason Duey be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?No won
- Will John Trobough be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?No won
- Will Joseph Chaplik be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?No won
- Will Kaitlin Purrington be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?No won
- Will Kari Lake be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?No won
- Will Mark Brnovich be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?No won
- Will Matt Gress be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?No won
- Will Muchelle Ugenti-Rita be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?No won
- Will Paul Reevs be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?No won
- Will Todd Graham be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.