TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$44,124
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,853

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,124 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe32b…626ebacked No11c2,841$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.382025%5 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No6c1,720$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.9614729.9%44 W · 103 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No7c1,597$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.3334333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5d…1614backed No12c1,519$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.057448.6%36 W · 38 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No10c1,344$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.2515431.2%48 W · 106 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed No9c1,098$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.751030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-58.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No7c1,031$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.758740.2%35 W · 52 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29a3…9b79backed No5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+102.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes51c985.62$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.6322833.8%77 W · 151 L+13.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x862b…8c23backed Yes33c962.6$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.94333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3080…337bbacked No6c839.09$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.075030%15 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes73c710.37$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.622948.9%112 W · 117 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No14c708.03$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1233421.9%73 W · 261 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No10c706.4$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.1110340.8%42 W · 61 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed No6c660$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.46311.1%7 W · 56 L-8.4wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-71.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No6c615.91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409035.6%32 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7131…b3a6backed Yes75c557.51$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.072272.7%16 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes72c544.78$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.0416544.2%73 W · 92 L+10.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No12c541$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4121033.3%70 W · 140 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No10c412.45$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.45139.2%20 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1206…1362backed Yes70c345.3$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.795444.4%24 W · 30 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No6c271.85$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.318541.2%35 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes73c261.26$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.773026.7%8 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-45.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed No8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-88.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No9c250$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.54847.9%23 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No8c249.19$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.894032.5%13 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f48…e69bbacked No30c245$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a1c…efafbacked Yes73c241.21$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.024238.1%16 W · 26 L-6.6wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-43.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No10c228$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.84949%24 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No9c222$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0413143.5%57 W · 74 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No11c220.25$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1410739.3%42 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes52c210$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.0824861.7%153 W · 95 L+24.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5446…18f6backed Yes69c206.08$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.796038.3%23 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked No10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13a9…e573backed No18c199.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.854119.5%8 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick21cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa784…3605backed No28c195.81$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.96221%13 W · 49 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No17c167.88$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4717140.4%69 W · 102 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6f6…0e74backed No9c161$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.623941%16 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No15c150$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0112330.9%38 W · 85 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa067…a429backed Yes53c148.36$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.09742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x039b…9b6cbacked No12c140$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.82420.8%5 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-53.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes70c133.01$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.99646.9%45 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dc4…a38dbacked Yes67c123$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.056251.6%32 W · 30 L+6.6wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+54.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x74fc…492cbacked Yes78c111.49$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.531776.5%13 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick68cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No14c110$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.25255.8%29 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3dd2…9ab1backed No10c109$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.91947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed No16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164643.5%20 W · 26 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0e0…016abacked No14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142412.5%3 W · 21 L-4.0wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-80.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x74aa…2c3fbacked No14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142119%4 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-63.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9448…b72ebacked No14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1450%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed No11c95$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.452231.8%7 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No30c92.04$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2666914.8%99 W · 570 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2955…0738backed Yes74c90$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.734136.6%15 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No41c90$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4545035.1%158 W · 292 L-37.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No16c87.46$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8424831%77 W · 171 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-37.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No33c81$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6549511.5%57 W · 438 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No30c80$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.716020.6%33 W · 127 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No22c65.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7518310.4%19 W · 164 L-9.7wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-41.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x489a…fff2backed No32c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes73c59.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.27437.8%28 W · 46 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No17c59.1$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.058234.1%28 W · 54 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No27c52.1$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.095950.8%30 W · 29 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7593…e677backed Yes73c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.51662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe02d…bcffbacked No25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-69.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c6f…deeebacked Yes71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.47742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No27c48.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1927222.1%60 W · 212 L-15.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-44.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes61c45$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5510361.2%63 W · 40 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+6.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes55c44$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.969819.4%19 W · 79 L-10.3wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-55.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes34c42.52$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0613317.3%23 W · 110 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed No30c42$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.67852.6%41 W · 37 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e35…a3bdbacked Yes71c42$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.182138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed Yes70c42$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.67843.6%34 W · 44 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b69…42cfbacked No28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-81.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x344d…cd28backed No26c38$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7645…201bbacked Yes72c32.56$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No35c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.56845.6%31 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ba1…cf36backed Yes79c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7efb…68a1backed Yes71c29.21$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.422437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes69c26.21$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.137339.7%29 W · 44 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf955…2280backed Yes76c26.15$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85b3…109fbacked Yes72c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c50…22fdbacked Yes53c21.58$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.22520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-62%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd927…6693backed No64c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x540a…64c9backed Yes54c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.22339.1%9 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-37.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb333…e295backed Yes73c17.81$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.811942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04d5…188fbacked Yes69c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.653363.6%21 W · 12 L+4.1wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+17.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0199…4e86backed Yes73c13.7$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.71735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.