Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Joseph Chaplik be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fcf21912df2c1f851f2c4db16266209fcc8d2b6dddaf1f63daa92eb5595fa8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2e5…b3a5backed Yes | 9c | 3,417$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.55 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 10c | 1,901$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.65 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,719$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.84 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 15c | 1,266$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.07 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…337bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,177$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.81 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 14c | 1,108$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.55 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 6c | 869.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Yes | 8c | 844.59$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 10c | 647.01$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 587.65$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 494 | 11.5%57 W · 437 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Yes | 4c | 586.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32fd…5c8bbacked Yes | 10c | 580.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 576.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 505$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 13c | 414$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 14c | 310.31$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 6c | 309.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e85abacked Yes | 11c | 308.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 10c | 291.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3229…c71bbacked Yes | 10c | 273.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 8c | 263.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 6c | 211.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Yes | 14c | 201.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…648cbacked Yes | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +10.8wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb704…a42dbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 10c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed Yes | 16c | 199.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 14c | 181.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 7c | 179$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e42…a043backed Yes | 11c | 164.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 19c | 159.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 13c | 144.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd3…1a5abacked Yes | 17c | 143$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 9c | 140$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…9b6cbacked Yes | 13c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 11c | 111.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 11c | 105.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…0439backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked Yes | 15c | 89.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…1362backed Yes | 16c | 86.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd501…3d0abacked Yes | 17c | 71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 23c | 69.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 228 | 48.7%111 W · 117 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 78c | 64.67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 40c | 39.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a85…8740backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c30…d8abbacked No | 80c | 16.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Joseph Chaplik be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?this page
- Will Brandon Sowers be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?No won
- Will Derrick Gallego be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?No won
- Will Gina Swoboda be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?No won
- Will Jason Duey be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?No won
- Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?Yes won
- Will John Trobough be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?No won
- Will Kaitlin Purrington be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?No won
- Will Kari Lake be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?No won
- Will Mark Brnovich be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?No won
- Will Matt Gress be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?No won
- Will Muchelle Ugenti-Rita be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?No won
- Will Paul Reevs be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?No won
- Will Todd Graham be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.