Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Paul Reevs be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa04457f32a2b1f94f9fc8f2b15cc663e90239940b07876cf62b77864779a5bbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $225,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $222,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $225,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f8d…d1d9backed Yes | 4c | 4,168$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5b…77a9backed Yes | 4c | 3,247$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…50bfbacked Yes | 4c | 3,064$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5acb…45c4backed Yes | 4c | 3,054$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…04f3backed Yes | 4c | 2,723$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x598e…b460backed Yes | 4c | 2,644$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2163…cbfbbacked Yes | 4c | 2,556$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf994…7b4cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,425$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc2…05d2backed Yes | 4c | 2,399$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdb…8e7abacked Yes | 4c | 2,218$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f5…878dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,005$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72f7…a31abacked Yes | 4c | 1,935$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf113…c2ebbacked Yes | 4c | 1,839$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb991…ce30backed Yes | 4c | 1,832$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8d…a40fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,811$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4813…f31cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,810$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7371…8823backed Yes | 4c | 1,760$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2040backed Yes | 4c | 1,568$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc2…41bdbacked Yes | 4c | 1,537$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9acc…9533backed Yes | 4c | 1,525$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a67…8a79backed Yes | 4c | 1,428$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c8…58dcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,310$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f4…0ef9backed Yes | 4c | 1,310$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5db…1549backed Yes | 4c | 1,203$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x518a…e507backed Yes | 4c | 1,177$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78a4…824bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,169$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…67a0backed Yes | 4c | 1,164$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ef…8947backed Yes | 4c | 1,121$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcc…9f4bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,121$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4cb…521fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,111$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d74…49edbacked Yes | 4c | 1,077$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2d…b24fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,072$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4802…ae3ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,050$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d0…3802backed Yes | 4c | 1,049$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e86…03b5backed Yes | 4c | 1,008$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddd6…3d16backed Yes | 4c | 1,004$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79bc…5476backed Yes | 4c | 1,002$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9993…a6cbbacked Yes | 4c | 994$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa386…21ffbacked Yes | 4c | 992$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa067…a429backed Yes | 19c | 981.32$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x862b…8c23backed Yes | 32c | 981.32$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfb…96d6backed Yes | 4c | 977$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf17e…72bbbacked Yes | 4c | 951$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd11…b7cabacked Yes | 4c | 948$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b20…ab06backed Yes | 4c | 929$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x395c…46bebacked Yes | 4c | 891$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4186…fd45backed Yes | 3c | 879$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e76…1955backed Yes | 3c | 872$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8185…e770backed Yes | 4c | 859$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfc…611abacked Yes | 3c | 856$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34b6…32f8backed Yes | 3c | 791$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ca…52fbbacked Yes | 4c | 770$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c02…fc66backed Yes | 4c | 761$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eef…e73cbacked Yes | 3c | 759$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…ba67backed Yes | 4c | 755$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66a…08c5backed Yes | 4c | 755$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff12…1b42backed Yes | 4c | 753$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…b4bcbacked Yes | 4c | 724$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea33…8e42backed Yes | 4c | 723$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4640…57d4backed Yes | 4c | 632$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf667…2c66backed Yes | 4c | 624$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3897…ea4bbacked Yes | 4c | 622$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe686…832bbacked Yes | 3c | 594$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x947d…0d45backed Yes | 4c | 548$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f0…1c1ebacked Yes | 4c | 312$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 33c | 43.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 133 | 17.3%23 W · 110 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Paul Reevs be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?this page
- Will Brandon Sowers be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?No won
- Will Derrick Gallego be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?No won
- Will Gina Swoboda be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?No won
- Will Jason Duey be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?No won
- Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?Yes won
- Will John Trobough be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?No won
- Will Joseph Chaplik be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?No won
- Will Kaitlin Purrington be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?No won
- Will Kari Lake be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?No won
- Will Mark Brnovich be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?No won
- Will Matt Gress be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?No won
- Will Muchelle Ugenti-Rita be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?No won
- Will Todd Graham be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.