TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0ba1…cf36

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
88
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: World Politics, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 51 out of 100; worst NBA at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
CS2last resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT2729.6%8 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FURIA Win the CS2 EWC 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$422Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$421.92
Will Team Vitality Win the CS2 EWC 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$844Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$843.84
Will Team Falcons Win the CS2 EWC 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$993Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$992.88
Will MOUZ Win the CS2 EWC 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$410Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$409.85
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+1,328.6%+$929.99
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$54
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$180
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$470Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$470
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$86
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group Bbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$78
Will Vitality win IEM Rio 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$226Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$163.77
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffsbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$14.77
Will Falcons win IEM Rio 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$104.88
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffsbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.28
Will Vitality win Blast Open Rotterdam 2026? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$263Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+128.1%+$336.96
Will Team Falcons win Blast Open Rotterdam 2026? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.63
Will Team Spirit win Blast Open Rotterdam 2026? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.81
Will Furia win Blast Open Rotterdam 2026? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.21
Will Team Vitality win IEM Krakow 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+185.7%+$237.24
Will FURIA win IEM Krakow 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$47.45
Will Team Spirit win IEM Krakow 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$69.35
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Team Falcons win IEM Krakow 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$51.1
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group Bbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$303Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+31.6%+$95.79
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-Inbacked G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+66.6%+$33.31
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-50.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$580Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$580
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$780Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+541.2%+$4,220.25
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$665Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$665
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$545Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$545
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$170
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$85
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$365Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$365
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$435Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$435
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$165
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$280
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 13 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-76.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$774Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$774.48
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$2,267Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,267.16
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$305Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$304.72
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$317Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$317.4
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$764Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$763.62
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$528Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$527.58
Bulls vs. Heatbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+185.7%+$37.14
Timberwolves vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Mavericks vs. Rocketsbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Warriors vs. Timberwolvesbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Grizzlies vs. Rocketsbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Magic vs. Cavaliersbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$50
All 12 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT1010%1 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-9.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.14
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+809.1%+$1,011.04
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.49
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$232Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$231.74
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$63
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.84
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$158.29
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.52
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.42
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.43
All 10 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid+3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hamad Medjedovic vs Joao Fonsecabacked Joao Fonseca · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Ben Sheltonbacked Ben Shelton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Madrid Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Tommy Paulbacked Tommy Paul · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.63
Madrid Open: Ben Shelton vs Dino Prizmicbacked Ben Shelton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.69
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Mirra Andreevabacked Elena Rybakina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$16.57
Barcelona Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Filsbacked Arthur Fils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$19.52
Barcelona Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hamad Medjedovicbacked Andrey Rublev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+42.1%+$25.62
Dallas Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Ben Sheltonbacked Shelton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$365Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+25%+$91.25
Alcaraz vs. Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5backed Over 3.5 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+53.8%+$26.92
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverevbacked Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+166.3%+$114
All 10 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-43.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-45.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 22, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$231Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$69
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rams vs. Seahawksbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+28.9%+$23.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.