TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$950,686
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$453,686

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $950,686 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 273 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf49c…9786backed Yes7c133,863$9,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,665.42615.4%4 W · 22 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-23.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Yes8c72,831$6,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,009.2841649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7040…81fabacked Yes8c26,282$2,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,141.948614%12 W · 74 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7128…75a2backed Yes7c25,230$1,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,837.8812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x243c…2240backed Yes7c20,798$1,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,459.262010%2 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe111…685abacked Yes8c20,000$1,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,512.0817540%70 W · 105 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes7c18,901$1,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,287.731315.4%2 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick7cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a0…4469backed Yes8c18,534$1,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,417.8314759.2%87 W · 60 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a64…3c0abacked Yes7c18,092$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3202850%14 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+23.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0354…2913backed Yes7c14,642$1,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,073.7313540.7%55 W · 80 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31a6…0dcfbacked Yes8c14,514$1,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,226.898138.3%31 W · 50 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x165e…f5aabacked Yes5c13,560$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.742352.2%12 W · 11 L+4.3wins+0.19per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9ff5…6afbbacked Yes6c13,002$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.573125.8%8 W · 23 L-5.1wins-0.16per pick42cpaid-45.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1610…ae49backed Yes5c12,063$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.5213548.9%66 W · 69 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6902…b4cabacked Yes9c11,628$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00025751.8%133 W · 124 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c37…0631backed Yes9c10,988$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes8c10,682$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.2137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick8cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6747…a64fbacked Yes7c10,288$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.176225.8%16 W · 46 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecc7…01e0backed Yes6c10,148$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.17839.7%31 W · 47 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+20.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes8c10,054$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.9138037.4%142 W · 238 L-14.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Yes5c10,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5201,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4c4…6dfdbacked Yes10c9,257$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.1616853.6%90 W · 78 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Yes2c9,170$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.1819423.7%46 W · 148 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf989…47ccbacked Yes8c8,823$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7053020%6 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c590backed Yes5c8,054$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.5814332.2%46 W · 97 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-33.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc97d…89d7backed Yes9c7,694$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.252147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Yes5c7,000$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.7629851.3%153 W · 145 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed Yes5c6,596$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.521,31053.7%703 W · 607 L+32.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes5c6,033$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.2429127.5%80 W · 211 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Yes9c5,912$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.0645646.9%214 W · 242 L-1.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb868…a94ebacked Yes9c5,809$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.613633.3%12 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-20.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x626f…cdfabacked Yes8c5,676$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.6931933.5%107 W · 212 L-0.8wins0.00per pick34cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc304…c6bbbacked Yes9c5,618$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.7210449%51 W · 53 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes9c5,539$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.7116761.7%103 W · 64 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c5,469$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.771,5009.9%148 W · 1,352 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0887…bf3bbacked Yes6c5,387$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003345.5%15 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41e8…b994backed Yes10c5,155$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.696240.3%25 W · 37 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfff1…ed1fbacked Yes8c5,116$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.17333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29db…19c3backed Yes9c5,023$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.612041.7%50 W · 70 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf03…3f1dbacked Yes10c5,000$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.599548.4%46 W · 49 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x48b8…4b69backed Yes9c5,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44020249%99 W · 103 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed Yes9c4,981$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.8822943.7%100 W · 129 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a1e…c023backed Yes7c4,617$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.9218148.6%88 W · 93 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4caf…6de9backed Yes9c4,585$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.51233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-44%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes7c4,465$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.7530748.9%150 W · 157 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb261…e94abacked Yes8c3,452$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b78…e589backed Yes9c3,407$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.9235861.7%221 W · 137 L+18.3wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes8c3,343$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.821717.6%3 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick11cpaid+43.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8261…a3f1backed Yes9c3,340$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.62441.7%10 W · 14 L-4.1wins-0.17per pick59cpaid-33.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x733b…0268backed Yes8c3,235$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.083732.4%12 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff6a…50abbacked Yes9c3,235$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.991030%3 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick54cpaid-46.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f77…8e71backed Yes9c3,162$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.77862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+39.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2362…2ec5backed Yes5c3,055$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.875414.8%8 W · 46 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaab2…a999backed Yes9c3,000$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2614461.4%27 W · 17 L+6.0wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+26.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd547…f7a8backed Yes9c3,000$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.352832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9438…e019backed Yes8c3,000$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2529642.7%41 W · 55 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5f6…f490backed Yes7c2,958$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7126…bfcbbacked Yes9c2,920$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25019548.2%94 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xed0b…c5f3backed Yes6c2,679$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.92616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-78.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2a…5ae1backed Yes8c2,588$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20012955%71 W · 58 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes8c2,573$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.4610735.5%38 W · 69 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes7c2,524$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.68375.4%2 W · 35 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-41.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8b25…d739backed Yes10c2,510$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+109.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe903…6adbbacked Yes9c2,500$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-39.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xee62…bc6abacked Yes5c2,500$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.56829.4%20 W · 48 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Yes9c2,479$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.5615743.9%69 W · 88 L-7.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3123…b44dbacked Yes9c2,407$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.0119252.1%100 W · 92 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa92e…1160backed Yes8c2,400$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.220732.4%67 W · 140 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-23.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf70…05d0backed Yes9c2,312$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+108.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd61a…c7f1backed Yes8c2,306$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.2960%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8798…76cebacked Yes5c2,268$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.071010%1 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-79.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a31…335fbacked Yes9c2,200$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5674…e17bbacked Yes9c2,187$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c4c…f869backed Yes9c2,000$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17412053.3%64 W · 56 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Yes7c2,000$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.7757641.1%237 W · 339 L-21.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e18…ae63backed Yes8c2,000$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1e8…193fbacked Yes8c1,965$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.171643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+57.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f03…2ddebacked Yes5c1,932$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002917.2%5 W · 24 L-3.7wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-61.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x417e…15e5backed Yes8c1,817$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.793935.9%14 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5522…c2bdbacked Yes6c1,765$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.630%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x102d…ff61backed Yes5c1,764$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.396726.9%18 W · 49 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31d6…e66cbacked Yes9c1,745$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1571136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid+48.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f3…b370backed Yes6c1,695$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002272.7%16 W · 6 L+4.6wins+0.21per pick52cpaid+84.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf54b…91f7backed Yes6c1,690$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10316538.8%64 W · 101 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed Yes6c1,672$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.8620651.9%107 W · 99 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1440…1a39backed Yes9c1,669$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c1,653$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.25700%0 W · 70 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7c1…675ebacked Yes6c1,623$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.352733.3%9 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa476…5e6dbacked Yes9c1,615$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.962070%14 W · 6 L+4.3wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+64.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfafc…c7a2backed Yes9c1,589$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1424226.2%11 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5453…a834backed Yes6c1,584$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.1731654.7%173 W · 143 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc63…a290backed Yes8c1,566$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13060%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed Yes8c1,546$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.7855941%229 W · 330 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6727…2ac7backed Yes8c1,520$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.224223.8%10 W · 32 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7dd…a02abacked Yes11c1,453$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.965850%29 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes6c1,296$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4116945%76 W · 93 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd163…1428backed Yes11c1,270$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1381442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6955…867abacked Yes9c1,239$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.084854.2%26 W · 22 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0bd…5f54backed Yes9c1,223$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1099338.7%36 W · 57 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x591b…8410backed Yes8c1,196$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003743.2%16 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+17.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.