Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Warsh say "Jerome" or "Powell" during June Press Conference?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2644d20105152c09057c9f7b1a75da6ccbe2601b47c7a0f8b92cf62e51d4d9f7

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $4,971
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $5,052

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,971 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe32b…626ebacked No	24c	414.97$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$315.38	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+1.1wins	+0.37per pick	29cpaid	+142.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf658…dcfebacked No	37c	277.46$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$175.67	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+1.1wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	+33.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x81dd…90f6backed Yes	74c	271.82$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	76c	200$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152	105	45.7%48 W · 57 L	-7.7wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Yes	49c	198.7$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.72	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa894…53dabacked No	53c	187.7$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.7	24	50%12 W · 12 L	+1.9wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No	28c	145$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.35	190	26.3%50 W · 140 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ec4…f4a4backed Yes	76c	129.99$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.79	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	36c	129.14$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.66	48	10.4%5 W · 43 L	-4.2wins	-0.09per pick	19cpaid	-74.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a30…532fbacked Yes	48c	104.84$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfd2…e68cbacked No	31c	100$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.69per pick	31cpaid	+222.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd52b…5c72backed No	38c	97.69$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.6	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	-7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb60…137abacked Yes	55c	90.91$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	14cpaid	-90.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed No	75c	80$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.4	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	33cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2712…eb71backed No	45c	68.78$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.79	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.12per pick	31cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes	73c	54.67$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.95	58	53.4%31 W · 27 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	76c	50.48$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.36	50	38%19 W · 31 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa1d…0eacbacked Yes	72c	50$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.25per pick	58cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	65c	50$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	240	46.3%111 W · 129 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f56…9302backed Yes	66c	50$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes	34c	40$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.42	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.18per pick	43cpaid	-64.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x07e0…1db9backed Yes	63c	40$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	39cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd20…6159backed Yes	76c	39.33$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.89	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-2.1wins	-0.27per pick	52cpaid	-61.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes	54c	35.01$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.85	32	43.8%14 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4692…242cbacked Yes	69c	30$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.7	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-45.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x949f…b038backed Yes	69c	28.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2751…3666backed Yes	69c	28.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes	73c	25$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.25	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	-5.6wins	-0.21per pick	36cpaid	-71.8%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa04a…6bf2backed Yes	65c	23.23$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.1	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.7wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe869…77ccbacked Yes	68c	22.06$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.68per pick	68cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa281…571ebacked Yes	69c	20.29$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.22per pick	72cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed Yes	66c	20$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.16per pick	66cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f08…73a8backed Yes	54c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	24cpaid	-83.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x78ae…d2ebbacked Yes	62c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.4	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	67cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x608f…9065backed Yes	73c	20$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb096…e8d7backed Yes	76c	19.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.19	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.76per pick	76cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes	69c	19.8$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.76	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82f1…89c4backed Yes	76c	19.32$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.68	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.67per pick	67cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf225…cc69backed Yes	73c	18.52$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.52	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.24per pick	57cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Warsh say "Jerome" or "Powell" during June Press Conference?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event