Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae8ae415d9d1ab448650d3338793e39c0a9b95b3120610c52a1d274bcdfd02f3

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $2,246
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $2,519

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,246 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9904…5ac8backed Yes	42c	596.08$252 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$343.7	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.21per pick	46cpaid	+77.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No	57c	332.98$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.8	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed No	58c	299.99$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.99	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb59…e21dbacked Yes	43c	209.8$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120.38	11	90.9%10 W · 1 L	+4.2wins	+0.39per pick	52cpaid	+79.7%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No	57c	200$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114	105	45.7%48 W · 57 L	-7.7wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0ec4…f4a4backed No	57c	162.61$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.69	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked No	59c	133$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.85	12	83.3%10 W · 2 L	+2.0wins	+0.17per pick	66cpaid	+27.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	40c	78$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.8	240	46.3%111 W · 129 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x643c…3fc2backed No	59c	53.15$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.36	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c6a…d012backed Yes	43c	46.51$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.51	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd850…e26cbacked No	58c	44.45$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.78	21	66.7%14 W · 7 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	59cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes	42c	42.38$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.58	58	53.4%31 W · 27 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf225…cc69backed Yes	42c	40$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.2	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.24per pick	57cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57a8…2fffbacked Yes	41c	37.17$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.93	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.59per pick	41cpaid	+143.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82f1…89c4backed No	58c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.67per pick	67cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd20…6159backed No	58c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-2.1wins	-0.27per pick	52cpaid	-61.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x608f…9065backed No	58c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event