TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Warsh say "Depression" or "Recession" during June Press Conference?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,084
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,122

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,084 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes38c646.8$244 inLost-$244.1112322.8%28 W · 95 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes44c237.01$105 inLost-$104.9519026.3%50 W · 140 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No65c200$130 inWon+$7010545.7%48 W · 57 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-29.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xafe2…b686backed No65c197$128 inWon+$69.34475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes14c153.79$22 inLost-$21.774810.4%5 W · 43 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-74.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x299c…7e23backed Yes65c100$65 inLost-$65728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes57c81.88$46 inLost-$46.283953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No65c80$52 inWon+$281526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-52.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No64c78.12$50 inWon+$28.12450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd850…e26cbacked No56c53.5$30 inWon+$23.542166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a72…a2abbacked No64c51$33 inWon+$18.36450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ec4…f4a4backed No54c47.83$26 inWon+$221553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes46c47.83$22 inLost-$2260%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x48de…0c51backed No56c39.79$22 inWon+$17.51666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes35c39$14 inLost-$13.651241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-33.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No63c35$22 inWon+$12.9524046.3%111 W · 129 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No64c34$22 inWon+$12.24944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-38%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes39c33$13 inLost-$12.755853.4%31 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Yes67c30.72$21 inLost-$20.582050%10 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes40c30$12 inLost-$1213829.7%41 W · 97 L-13.4wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-42.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes44c30$13 inLost-$13.22714.8%4 W · 23 L-5.6wins-0.21per pick36cpaid-71.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xbe74…a70ebacked No61c20$12 inWon+$7.81866.7%12 W · 6 L+4.0wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+62.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf7a2…c0c5backed No65c20$13 inWon+$7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x604b…67b5backed No65c20$13 inWon+$7580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c93…39afbacked No62c20$12 inWon+$7.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x608f…9065backed Yes66c16.22$11 inLost-$10.71050%5 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x06d0…059abacked No78c13.5$11 inWon+$2.97977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick61cpaid+16.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.