TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,413
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,359

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,413 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes67c406$273 inWon+$132.594548.9%22 W · 23 L+7.0wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+25.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No30c352.32$105 inLost-$104.8612322.8%28 W · 95 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2712…eb71backed No27c295.55$80 inLost-$79.98742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+25.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No11c182$19 inLost-$19.464810.4%5 W · 43 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-74.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes73c150$110 inWon+$40.51650%8 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-22.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a72…a2abbacked No32c99.14$32 inLost-$31.72450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No15c97.9$15 inLost-$14.6819026.3%50 W · 140 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes79c75.26$59 inWon+$15.915853.4%31 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa1d…0eacbacked Yes72c50$36 inWon+$14333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-53.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb19…2d19backed No25c40$10 inLost-$10475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2b9…9e85backed Yes67c31.34$21 inWon+$10.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f84…b4c4backed Yes67c30.67$21 inWon+$10.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdae5…6fc8backed No34c30$10 inLost-$10.220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No40c25$10 inLost-$101330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+64.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa685…c6c1backed Yes73c20$15 inWon+$5.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb082…5138backed Yes73c20$15 inWon+$5.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-54.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x608f…9065backed Yes73c20$15 inWon+$5.41050%5 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc140…a5edbacked Yes67c19.13$13 inWon+$6.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1491…e53dbacked Yes67c14.97$10 inWon+$4.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48e4…201cbacked Yes67c14.97$10 inWon+$4.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.