Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad6595fbcc8d0bfc9e1a305ee8ec1434a8f0c03d0aaf9124947a72bbbd33edd2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb196…dbbbbacked Yes | 0c | 52,103$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 17c | 3,368$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.46 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 80c | 3,169$2,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,262$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.28 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,043$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.87 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 12c | 765.2$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.15 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -96.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe117…b4e7backed Yes | 18c | 700$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…74f5backed No | 79c | 698.73$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 18c | 599.22$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.87 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Yes | 19c | 545.6$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18c6…a4dbbacked Yes | 20c | 470$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 19c | 442$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x569f…5561backed Yes | 21c | 435.43$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 21c | 429.42$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.17 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 8c | 422.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e0…cee7backed Yes | 26c | 401.92$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0f…9556backed Yes | 18c | 352$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 301.83$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 79c | 299.99$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81dd…90f6backed Yes | 37c | 268.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 19c | 256.06$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 80c | 253.99$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…a64abacked Yes | 21c | 242.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 80c | 227$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed No | 75c | 226.53$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb164…33ddbacked Yes | 21c | 225.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 18c | 220$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…dabfbacked Yes | 20c | 211$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 207.13$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 21c | 176.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1229…df38backed Yes | 21c | 149.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…9b3dbacked Yes | 20c | 135$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 24c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 119.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x62d8…b629backed Yes | 20c | 119.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a30…532fbacked Yes | 26c | 114.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4692…242cbacked Yes | 21c | 114.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8156…98a9backed Yes | 27c | 112.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3088…2391backed Yes | 20c | 111$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 66c | 106$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe67c…33f2backed Yes | 20c | 106$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed Yes | 20c | 105$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 101.18$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38cf…7148backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…8f7abacked Yes | 21c | 95.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 85.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…388abacked Yes | 19c | 81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 80c | 67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741a…b692backed Yes | 20c | 64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Yes | 19c | 63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x643c…3fc2backed Yes | 23c | 63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 57c | 63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9d…e979backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 80c | 57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…f273backed Yes | 20c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bc…42c1backed Yes | 20c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 73c | 53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 52.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5092…0719backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7b…f9eabacked Yes | 21c | 49.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2751…3666backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8043…f0bbbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb19…2d19backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference?this page
- Will Warsh say "All-Time High" or "All-Time Low" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Asymmetric" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Chair" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Depression" or "Recession" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Downside" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Dual Mandate" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Goods Inflation" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group Think" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "I Don't Know" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Independence" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Inflation" 60+ times during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Jerome" or "Powell" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Job Market" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Job" 15+ times during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Maximum Employment" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Money" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Predecessor" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Rate" or "Cut" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Stable" or "Stability" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Stock" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.