Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Warsh say "Job" 15+ times during June Press Conference?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x022f7ca8721bfb430c8862757acf7acabc3c418545dcef10e76a9058c57cca3c

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,392
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,398

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,392 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	22c	95.05$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.26	48	10.4%5 W · 43 L	-4.2wins	-0.09per pick	19cpaid	-74.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes	50c	88.65$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.19	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	-5.6wins	-0.21per pick	36cpaid	-71.8%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd00f…1ba0backed No	49c	87.4$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.53	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+103.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes	48c	65.72$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.86	123	22.8%28 W · 95 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02ab…cda4backed Yes	48c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.1	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.24per pick	41cpaid	-74.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes	52c	40$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.6	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-3.2wins	-0.19per pick	31cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	52c	34.07$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.39	240	46.3%111 W · 129 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x604b…67b5backed Yes	52c	32.48$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.89	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.14per pick	66cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a2…c0c5backed Yes	53c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.24per pick	58cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f4f…c2f1backed No	53c	24$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.28	58	53.4%31 W · 27 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b3d…b7f1backed No	52c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.52	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.48per pick	52cpaid	+92.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	105	45.7%48 W · 57 L	-7.7wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c9b…80dcbacked Yes	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf136…275fbacked Yes	51c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c65…dcf7backed Yes	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x608f…9065backed Yes	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd850…e26cbacked No	52c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.6	21	66.7%14 W · 7 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	59cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Warsh say "Job" 15+ times during June Press Conference?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event