Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8b5f068b9867939f2672a0c080f81b01c87f8b91f80071d3cf75c58e452f2dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e3d…8554backed Yes | 73c | 3,347$2,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,432.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 26c | 2,127$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,581.9 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 40c | 2,066$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 27c | 1,543$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.62 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 75c | 1,454$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a30…532fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,078$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 27c | 999.99$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.99 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 77c | 970.05$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.9 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -96.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 712.44$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.37 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Yes | 63c | 518.34$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 27c | 511.26$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.57 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Yes | 74c | 511.25$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 73c | 460.81$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.49 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceab…dce7backed No | 26c | 418.67$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…dcfebacked No | 28c | 406.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.03 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed No | 25c | 401.11$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c61…e005backed No | 27c | 364.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c6…df7dbacked Yes | 4c | 350$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…494bbacked No | 29c | 300$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 74c | 299.77$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.63 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 29c | 246$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.66 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed No | 34c | 204.73$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.8 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…dabfbacked Yes | 76c | 191$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 38c | 181.05$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.25 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 179.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.38 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed No | 24c | 174.05$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.28 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 21c | 162$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.12 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…588cbacked Yes | 76c | 144$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…7697backed No | 29c | 139.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +248.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x128b…0ee5backed No | 30c | 136.49$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +231.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 55c | 121.71$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.69 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed Yes | 72c | 119.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3088…2391backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.71 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f80…14cdbacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…e02fbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 29c | 98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.1 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 58c | 90.4$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d8…b629backed Yes | 76c | 87$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 53c | 81.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6d…0162backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc26…7e7dbacked Yes | 68c | 77.95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…388abacked Yes | 75c | 76$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 30c | 72.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Yes | 76c | 72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes | 75c | 66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5814…3dfabacked No | 28c | 63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +260%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…b327backed No | 26c | 63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +289.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 54c | 61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 38c | 56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 78c | 55.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 26c | 53.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…339ebacked No | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23b4…48dabacked No | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…f273backed Yes | 76c | 49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 26c | 47.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc489…bc95backed Yes | 73c | 47.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…8f7abacked Yes | 74c | 45.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 25c | 45.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x227f…9cb4backed No | 31c | 43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f15…a634backed Yes | 71c | 42.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 73cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe084…b381backed No | 31c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…cc69backed Yes | 56c | 40.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked No | 34c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed No | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…439ebacked Yes | 76c | 39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f1…599ebacked No | 31c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 37c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 39c | 29.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 37c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 75c | 28.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 55c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 74c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…c150backed Yes | 75c | 26.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d36…e0d7backed Yes | 75c | 26.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2751…3666backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…76f9backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ee…69e6backed Yes | 72c | 23.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c5…3533backed Yes | 75c | 23.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa129…0838backed Yes | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 76c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4692…242cbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked Yes | 76c | 19.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad5a…e224backed Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65d5…2047backed Yes | 69c | 14.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…38bfbacked Yes | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference?this page
- Will Warsh say "All-Time High" or "All-Time Low" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Asymmetric" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Chair" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Depression" or "Recession" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Downside" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Dual Mandate" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Goods Inflation" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group Think" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "I Don't Know" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Independence" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Inflation" 60+ times during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Jerome" or "Powell" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Job Market" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Job" 15+ times during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Maximum Employment" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Money" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Predecessor" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Rate" or "Cut" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Stable" or "Stability" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Stock" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.