Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e66cd3aa75288acb1affa40710095e8206797328461aefc7d03b75312544b8f

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,693
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,877

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,693 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc8ab…6418backed No	52c	258.18$134 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.42	105	45.7%48 W · 57 L	-7.7wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1191…c092backed Yes	45c	224.26$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf67…6842backed No	70c	142.73$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.73	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes	39c	126.78$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.38	129	41.1%53 W · 76 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes	26c	83.67$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.42	190	26.3%50 W · 140 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	24c	61.84$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.65	48	10.4%5 W · 43 L	-4.2wins	-0.09per pick	19cpaid	-74.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2814…5596backed No	49c	60$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.6	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+104.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48de…0c51backed Yes	43c	55$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.45	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.14per pick	53cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02ab…cda4backed Yes	54c	50$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.24per pick	41cpaid	-74.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe02d…bcffbacked Yes	51c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes	51c	35.46$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.01	58	53.4%31 W · 27 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked No	75c	35.21$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.95	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	+3.5wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+51%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes	44c	32.24$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.15	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.18per pick	43cpaid	-64.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeced…c598backed Yes	60c	30$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	62cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0db8…1d6abacked Yes	54c	27.78$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	68cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No	61c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.8	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes	51c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-3.2wins	-0.19per pick	31cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event