Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Warsh say "Job Market" during June Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe80cd45e7afc243ce2419ebbc0236b8d14fc1c07f7f188ae8e93714e3cb06069
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 48c | 548.25$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.83 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 57c | 333$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.19 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe32b…626ebacked No | 32c | 272.35$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 67c | 205$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.1 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9904…5ac8backed Yes | 61c | 162.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 44c | 106.2$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.29 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6a…d012backed Yes | 65c | 77.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd850…e26cbacked No | 31c | 72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed No | 40c | 54.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 46c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 35c | 52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…8f7abacked Yes | 49c | 50.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 57c | 50.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ab…cda4backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 41c | 42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa74…78b9backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 61c | 34.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -5.6wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 37c | 34.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2751…3666backed Yes | 61c | 32.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 56c | 24.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x734b…2a2cbacked No | 51c | 20.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a2…c0c5backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f4…a711backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Warsh say "Job Market" during June Press Conference?this page
- Will Warsh say "All-Time High" or "All-Time Low" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Asymmetric" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Chair" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Depression" or "Recession" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Downside" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Dual Mandate" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Goods Inflation" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group Think" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "I Don't Know" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Independence" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Inflation" 60+ times during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Jerome" or "Powell" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Job" 15+ times during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Maximum Employment" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Money" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Predecessor" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Rate" or "Cut" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Stable" or "Stability" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Stock" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.