TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$64,031
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,923

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,031 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xeec5…b6febacked Yes65c3,709$2,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,394.64450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No49c2,238$1,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,143.21566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0761…ad5cbacked Yes0c2,171$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed Yes51c2,072$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes64c1,604$1,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028.06250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f29…0760backed Yes61c1,600$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x235e…5673backed Yes51c1,500$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf07…c770backed Yes44c1,438$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.94633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+0.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x34aa…ab6bbacked Yes62c1,400$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$870.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2e9…fc96backed No75c1,330$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.032100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No36c1,279$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.931369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No44c1,223$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.393873.7%28 W · 10 L+4.9wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+20.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No40c1,193$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.874360.5%26 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe32b…626ebacked No28c1,137$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.22450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+42.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3caf…6d8abacked No51c1,117$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.64333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked Yes59c1,060$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.353016.7%5 W · 25 L-6.5wins-0.22per pick38cpaid-65.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xcfac…804bbacked Yes64c992.47$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac6a…2ed3backed Yes65c944.14$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.96450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes72c925.86$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.256139.3%24 W · 37 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No46c774.75$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.19771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+178.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No30c769.39$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.62520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No47c719.72$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.043857.9%22 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c7…5510backed Yes59c700$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No38c698.9$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.912972.4%21 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+30.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6383…b007backed Yes77c648.64$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes63c644.08$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.8715148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1dad…ee77backed Yes63c637.84$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No38c622.71$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.583655.6%20 W · 16 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+32.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No35c600.86$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.562272.7%16 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+36.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf6aa…178ebacked Yes69c470.09$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x191e…ef6bbacked Yes63c458.58$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6406…bc04backed Yes63c438.68$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.1920%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b2d…ff5bbacked Yes70c411.96$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.1720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f48…e69bbacked No34c399.47$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+197.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x646d…0d58backed No37c387.66$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+171.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x46d2…8e2bbacked Yes67c370.26$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe11a…c40bbacked Yes67c359.52$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.671275%9 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes57c328.62$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.13837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No53c319.08$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.4523330.5%71 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02f7…dd8fbacked No47c317.53$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No37c317.2$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.843663.9%23 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No28c310.47$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.762766.7%18 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+28.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes72c300$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2166827.9%19 W · 49 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ffe…e125backed Yes66c300$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid+80.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x275c…6090backed Yes79c296.39$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No54c289.43$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.142560%15 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa019…5ffdbacked No38c270$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.4683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick49cpaid+90.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No36c258$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.574568.9%31 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No44c257$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.722965.5%19 W · 10 L+3.8wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+20.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbae1…3a47backed Yes70c245.24$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No36c237.12$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.971080%8 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+39.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c30…7673backed No43c235$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.05366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick30cpaid+52.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6f6…0e74backed No39c230.08$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.52250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5037…0307backed Yes70c229.99$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes55c229.82$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.520242.1%85 W · 117 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2973…700dbacked Yes70c213.43$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No33c212.06$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.1210836.1%39 W · 69 L-0.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No60c204.02$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.662176.2%16 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick63cpaid+19.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x03e1…e180backed No31c203.36$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.24650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+20.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+19.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb141…441cbacked Yes54c186.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b3…bad4backed Yes54c185.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.141030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid+11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No38c182.35$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.264436.4%16 W · 28 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+47.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x94bd…6184backed Yes54c168.07$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9939…4993backed Yes63c159.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x697e…4d44backed Yes63c158.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x98ac…40d9backed No22c157$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.11683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+72.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a9d…e50dbacked Yes64c156.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No57c153.9$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb66…5e13backed Yes66c150$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9920%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed Yes25c150$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-33.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19e5…dd71backed Yes74c146.24$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x78f4…6daabacked Yes72c144.76$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9269…2900backed Yes53c140$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed Yes74c137.8$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.311266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+75.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21a3…9e97backed Yes65c135$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.2540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+101.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes35c134$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.943743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e61…5a25backed Yes65c133.21$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x714d…c177backed No27c132.89$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.01366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick31cpaid+93.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes62c132.16$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.941442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6c…e3f5backed No47c128.75$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.071181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.24per pick58cpaid+46.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No34c119.8$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.742634.6%9 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-30.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No25c115.77$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.982466.7%16 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed Yes64c113.2$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.451553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes45c112.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2330918.1%56 W · 253 L-29.6wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-44.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x734c…1d86backed No18c111.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5711…5853backed Yes68c111$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes50c108.87$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.271735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+71.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked Yes72c107$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.041850%9 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-21%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x70ca…2443backed Yes79c101.06$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ca…60aebacked Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b42…cac8backed Yes64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0a…163ebacked Yes59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e8e…5b53backed No35c99.2$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.484100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+134.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No35c98.71$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.642941.4%12 W · 17 L-3.6wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-25.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No36c98.54$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.681361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No35c92.86$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.532420.8%5 W · 19 L-3.9wins-0.16per pick37cpaid-45.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3406…6ce0backed No33c91.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+49.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe230…f440backed Yes55c90.71$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No40c90.25$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.423666.7%24 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.