TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$74,730
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$97,738

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,730 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcf07…c770backed Yes22c5,829$1,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,542.46633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+0.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No1c5,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.981315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-37.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0761…ad5cbacked No0c2,118$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1e1…69a6backed Yes7c2,074$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,923.632100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+677.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x51de…9e4abacked Yes30c1,990$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,392.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No68c1,305$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885.61369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No61c1,102$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.394360.5%26 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3b8…f32fbacked Yes36c1,035$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.872100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+632.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No30c906.49$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.83520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No68c892.75$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.591566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No71c757.46$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.715148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No65c738.5$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.192972.4%21 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+30.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9078…83c7backed Yes42c720.45$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+140.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c30…7673backed Yes44c675.31$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.43366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick30cpaid+52.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No58c671.6$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.763873.7%28 W · 10 L+4.9wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+20.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No77c668.35$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.492272.7%16 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+36.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeec5…b6febacked Yes31c548.85$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.38450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No79c548.39$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.926139.3%24 W · 37 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No70c500.22$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.563450%17 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4060…c1c4backed Yes32c452.8$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.757135.2%25 W · 46 L+6.8wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+74.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No67c446.89$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.972040%8 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-38.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes6c442$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.4823330.5%71 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No70c423.41$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.471172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No72c402.99$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.132161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa019…5ffdbacked Yes33c399.99$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.6683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick49cpaid+90.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked No72c399.99$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.591546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick62cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No74c372.07$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.262766.7%18 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+28.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes11c368.59$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.1829913.7%41 W · 258 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No72c345.64$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.962965.5%19 W · 10 L+3.8wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+20.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes7c332.78$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.874413.6%6 W · 38 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick6cpaid+101.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes31c327.58$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.71837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad4a…ddb8backed No76c326.88$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.13520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-56.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9c7…e3fcbacked Yes39c309.75$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+157.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e8e…5b53backed Yes32c263.66$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.824100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+134.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No69c258$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.214568.9%31 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No60c255$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.823857.9%22 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No65c247.1$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.761080%8 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+39.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes7c244.65$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.331735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+71.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f6…0e74backed No62c222.01$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.69250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No67c220$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.521553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa22b…0673backed Yes45c214.07$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.072100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+165.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No34c204$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.292176.2%16 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick63cpaid+19.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1733…346abacked Yes11c187.68$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+369.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0186…2429backed Yes21c186.45$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+366.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No22c181.3$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.431154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No69c164$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.620242.1%85 W · 117 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No48c160.45$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.721050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x697e…4d44backed No64c156.01$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ec4…f4a4backed No67c150$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.35837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick62cpaid-38%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed No27c150$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-33.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No73c145.54$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.614436.4%16 W · 28 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+47.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21a3…9e97backed Yes13c135$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.06540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+101.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43fd…59d3backed No31c130$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.38580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+22.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No63c126.25$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.691361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc85f…0fe1backed Yes38c124.7$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.57771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+41.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x039b…9b6cbacked Yes36c120$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.44333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No64c112.91$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.442634.6%9 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-30.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x88b3…bad4backed No61c109.99$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.221030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid+11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28e6…a59dbacked Yes29c103.81$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+246%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ffe…e125backed Yes19c100$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid+80.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa4c…737ebacked No63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1000…7bdcbacked Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fff…be78backed No71c100$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb2c…6bf7backed Yes33c99.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+205.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb425…ed54backed Yes24c99.11$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+323.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc901…0c1dbacked Yes36c98.54$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.97650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No69c90.01$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.171266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac6a…2ed3backed Yes33c85.62$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.09450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed Yes54c81.15$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.42352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No78c80$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.164854.2%26 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed Yes32c78.36$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.131668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+21.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No71c77.09$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8110836.1%39 W · 69 L-0.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No78c77$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.271866.7%12 W · 6 L+0.1wins0.00per pick66cpaid+6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No70c76.26$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.54955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0446…cc69backed Yes29c69.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x119d…bec3backed Yes29c68.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked No55c65$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.56540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6406…bc04backed No65c64.12$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5520%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked Yes33c59$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.291850%9 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-21%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed Yes49c58$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes21c56$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.381080%8 W · 2 L+3.6wins+0.36per pick44cpaid+83.5%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed No65c55.59$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.41850%4 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes47c55.14$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.023743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6aa8…e07abacked Yes20c54$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+152.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d25…98abbacked Yes47c53.44$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.44250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa32d…df56backed No77c52.22$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ecb…4c3abacked Yes32c52$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d02…2ad3backed Yes39c51.68$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.68450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes61c51.57$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.253655.6%20 W · 16 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+32.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c91…5cccbacked No67c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.45425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-57.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No67c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.551656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c90…17efbacked No74c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd385…dd8abacked No67c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.45425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick63cpaid-66.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x405b…755cbacked Yes25c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9362…d4a4backed No76c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.95333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-54.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.351181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.24per pick58cpaid+46.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7d2f…4fb4backed Yes32c49$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+208%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes39c45.42$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.521844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-5.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x94bd…6184backed Yes33c45.32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.32333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5e2…5bf7backed Yes33c45.32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+202.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.