Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.9% and 5.2%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4af115cc5eadfbaa831523a17f297842011e6ba4175fc194b6d1e5e862193077
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 15c | 1,442$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabc9…cb40backed Yes | 8c | 1,257$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…8225backed Yes | 2c | 926.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…6cb4backed Yes | 49c | 924.52$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3caf…6d8abacked Yes | 37c | 828.69$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…5f45backed Yes | 6c | 825.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34aa…ab6bbacked Yes | 5c | 730.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 10c | 585.84$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.24 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa289…4791backed Yes | 2c | 582.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05df…882dbacked Yes | 4c | 579.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…8df9backed Yes | 4c | 552.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 60 | 5%3 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2187…3c41backed Yes | 4c | 508.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed Yes | 3c | 477.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed Yes | 19c | 390.46$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 66c | 389.08$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.91 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 5c | 379.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 33c | 360$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.91 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -6.5wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 315.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f5…72bcbacked Yes | 4c | 275$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf4…527fbacked Yes | 33c | 273$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…e7febacked Yes | 5c | 269.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 57c | 263.15$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 253.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 213.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 34c | 199.65$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 7c | 180$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 156.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes | 18c | 127.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94bd…6184backed Yes | 37c | 100.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ca…60aebacked Yes | 33c | 86.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 21c | 81.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 81.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 64c | 69.48$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 67c | 56.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…2e0ebacked Yes | 27c | 54.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 67c | 50.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 50.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…178abacked Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x643a…522abacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 66c | 45.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb528…9f54backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d13…e682backed No | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee4f…b168backed Yes | 56c | 33.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 71c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…1108backed No | 72c | 25.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 71c | 20.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2c…48e4backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x495a…f3a7backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.9% and 5.2%?this page
- Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.3%?No won
- Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?Yes won
- Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?No won
- Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 5.2% and 5.5%?No won
- Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 5.5% and 5.8%?No won
- Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 5.8% and 6.1%?No won
- Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be less than 4.0%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.