Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89c07679687214515f207ddd955ec2a240696d9c5e9ba33e3b503690d71b8fcd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe32b…626ebacked No | 33c | 1,075$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed Yes | 72c | 556.94$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3089…92f6backed Yes | 31c | 304.08$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 28cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 48c | 291.34$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.84 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 69c | 290$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x731a…033fbacked Yes | 69c | 250$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 38c | 237$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.06 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +182.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 53c | 191.34$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.93 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 52c | 153.14$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.94 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 69c | 124$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 53c | 107.15$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.36 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 47c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 52c | 91.34$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.84 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 69c | 55.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 62c | 51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 44c | 50.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed No | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9059…c60fbacked Yes | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 50c | 38.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked Yes | 51c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 69c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdae5…6fc8backed Yes | 49c | 22.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in May?this page
- Will Core CPI MoM be -0.2% in May?No won
- Will Core CPI MoM be -0.3% or less in May?No won
- Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in May?No won
- Will Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in May?No won
- Will Core CPI MoM be 0.5% in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.