World Politics · resolved market
Will Gerlando Alonge win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88862ad18ef597d86b9d11ee497f003f9c974621099ebb6bc8f55fa0f8494c10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 59c | 2,469$1,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460.52 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 24c | 1,559$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178.47 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +16.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac0…55f3backed Yes | 58c | 1,220$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 22c | 677.63$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.88 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 615$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.13 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 41c | 601.13$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.61 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 75c | 400$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Yes | 63c | 352.39$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.7 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 32c | 332$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.31 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 73c | 322$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.06 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 24c | 310.76$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.18 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 38c | 300$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…e458backed No | 38c | 300$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.51per pick | 29cpaid | +146.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 75c | 273.97$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.91 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 33c | 255.22$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.69 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 31c | 249.27$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.58 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 44c | 226.9$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.71 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ceb…609dbacked Yes | 69c | 215.29$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked Yes | 75c | 209.1$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.08 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe958…7da8backed No | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 195$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.9 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 66c | 190.86$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.94 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 33c | 180$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.17 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9084…6732backed Yes | 76c | 163.8$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 73c | 138.88$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.38 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 26c | 134.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe32b…626ebacked No | 27c | 124$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.12 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 48c | 115.2$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.44 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a0…eabdbacked Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…9133backed Yes | 72c | 109$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 27c | 105$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.65 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 36c | 101.17$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.48 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d65…8e57backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22dc…7b11backed No | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.59 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 55c | 90.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 67c | 72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 43c | 70.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 61.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 60c | 56.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 45c | 55.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed No | 45c | 51.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 55c | 51.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed Yes | 75c | 46.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 73c | 41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed No | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a87…3e26backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 60cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 73c | 34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 31c | 32.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…b306backed No | 45c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dc…58d5backed Yes | 55c | 30.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 45c | 27.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 73c | 27.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb65…103fbacked Yes | 79c | 26.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 69cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 72c | 23.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…683bbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb073…54fbbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede3…2f81backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8d…189cbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb2…7f19backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2032backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2177…3fb4backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…49c3backed Yes | 79c | 16.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8f…d9eebacked Yes | 71c | 15.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…fbf3backed Yes | 74c | 13.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gerlando Alonge win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election?this page
- Will Michele Sodano win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.