World Politics · resolved market
Will Michele Sodano win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb05008525c14da3c52d79f3f242ed5cdf82071a15ebdd3acb0b79be078101632
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 31c | 1,685$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159.13 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dca…3c13backed Yes | 76c | 993.64$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.64 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +11.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 23c | 924.1$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.51 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +16.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 65c | 720$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.6 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 698.21$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.61 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 615.02$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.58 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d65…8e57backed Yes | 34c | 540$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…e458backed Yes | 34c | 449.98$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.51per pick | 29cpaid | +146.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 386.54$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.81 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 332$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.04 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 321.85$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.27 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 65c | 316.99$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.82 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 300$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.5 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…5228backed Yes | 68c | 242.4$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.57 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +259.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 25c | 226.71$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.13 | 110 | 20.9%23 W · 87 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ceb…609dbacked Yes | 36c | 218.29$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…3b45backed No | 53c | 188$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.64 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 32c | 182.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.51 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 165.96$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2177…3fb4backed No | 66c | 162.73$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.4 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 29c | 133.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…be4dbacked No | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 31c | 113.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.25 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 28c | 105$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.33 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…77bdbacked No | 26c | 96.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796d…9551backed No | 27c | 96.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 75c | 93.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.05 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 30c | 92.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 36c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 36c | 87.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 35c | 86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 39c | 75.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa522…ea51backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 61c | 68.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424c…82b5backed Yes | 22c | 67.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed Yes | 43c | 58.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf53a…7970backed Yes | 27c | 57.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 39c | 56.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 74c | 55.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 26c | 55.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0586…2b4abacked Yes | 46c | 54.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +118%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed No | 66c | 52.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…7ba4backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 41c | 49.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…4ff3backed Yes | 40c | 47.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6564…47cebacked Yes | 68c | 43.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 47c | 42.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 50c | 41.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 78c | 41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…9828backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 66c | 36.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed Yes | 59c | 35.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 70c | 34.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29e4…16a6backed No | 75c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…fbf3backed No | 59c | 29.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 54c | 27.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 76c | 27.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8348…4c02backed Yes | 67c | 26.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 60c | 26.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x550a…6412backed No | 56c | 24.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…7939backed No | 78c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.34per pick | 61cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…10dabacked No | 60c | 20.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d2…6480backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5d…6116backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f0…b231backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae5…6079backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ea…c810backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cb…ae01backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 61c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8d…189cbacked No | 75c | 13.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Michele Sodano win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election?this page
- Will Gerlando Alonge win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.