TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$175,662
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$204,224

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $175,662 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 225 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1c14…0869backed Yes77c20,372$15,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,742.7510740.2%43 W · 64 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+52.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked No19c15,440$2,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,875.663026.7%8 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-45.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No24c14,195$3,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,431.215150.3%76 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No18c9,496$1,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,716.0334333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No20c6,179$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,260.4714729.9%44 W · 103 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No20c5,749$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,122.055251.9%27 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Yes79c5,335$4,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.671030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-47.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No19c4,514$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.321161.1%129 W · 82 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No19c4,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.991330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+4.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes80c3,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6001855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe32b…626ebacked No21c3,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6302025%5 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No23c2,703$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.758149.4%40 W · 41 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes78c1,900$1,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4232055%11 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes70c1,881$1,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.256750.7%34 W · 33 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No22c1,631$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.531717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-57.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f1…d87bbacked No22c1,588$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.71633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes76c1,437$1,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.2933238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x384f…58adbacked Yes80c1,251$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.78580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd19f…64ccbacked No19c1,075$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No18c1,070$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.8721033.3%70 W · 140 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x048a…9be4backed No18c1,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1802528%7 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-34.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x64c8…73cebacked Yes71c999.99$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2901968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.7wins+0.20per pick49cpaid+14.3%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xdb97…eee8backed Yes79c950$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1995547.3%26 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed No21c924.51$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.7118041.1%74 W · 106 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed No18c896$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.2812643.7%55 W · 71 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked No18c888$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.848535.3%30 W · 55 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf92c…87f7backed Yes79c855$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.551650%8 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x897a…4194backed No18c837.68$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.35754.4%31 W · 26 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+16.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No29c736.27$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.7210739.3%42 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes74c711.4$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.0822948.9%112 W · 117 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac0…55f3backed Yes77c684.08$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.781376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick65cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No21c664.83$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.4210340.8%42 W · 61 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5845…f0afbacked No18c663.27$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7131…b3a6backed Yes77c650$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.52272.7%16 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc624…ee24backed Yes69c618.78$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.246355.6%35 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes77c614.52$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.898831.8%28 W · 60 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-29.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dff…2a13backed Yes71c580.8$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes79c526.57$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.524831%77 W · 171 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-37.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f6…0e74backed No17c515.85$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.223941%16 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No15c508.51$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.181936.8%7 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd217…b3f3backed No20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83f1…1936backed Yes80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1002100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe82f…a089backed Yes77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115757.1%4 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick72cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed No19c490.63$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.069819.4%19 W · 79 L-10.3wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-55.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No29c479$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.9127222.1%60 W · 212 L-15.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-44.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No21c477$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0619631.1%61 W · 135 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3305…fc1bbacked Yes80c437.5$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.54100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+72.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked No18c437.49$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.895018%9 W · 41 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-32.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc01f…cd8ebacked No23c434.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006030%18 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-39.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8594…7eedbacked Yes78c423.42$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.422661.5%16 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes79c413$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.99520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-74.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43ab…a0efbacked Yes69c400$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1241533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-47.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2955…0738backed No19c400$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.284136.6%15 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No29c398.79$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.665133.3%17 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked No31c390.64$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.622833.8%77 W · 151 L+13.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x07ee…8dfebacked Yes70c373.41$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.855747.4%27 W · 30 L+8.6wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+69.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No13c372.78$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.589010%9 W · 81 L-20.0wins-0.22per pick32cpaid-81.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes80c363.8$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.768541.2%35 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes79c359.77$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.64729.8%14 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe74…a70ebacked No18c350.27$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.053321.2%7 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-49.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes77c350$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.52040%8 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4a1…f154backed Yes76c334.7$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.51580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick44cpaid+87.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad99…dbabbacked No18c333.33$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-54.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3baa…96f4backed Yes72c327$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.56650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-34.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No28c322.14$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.8233421.9%73 W · 261 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x41a3…46b8backed No19c314.26$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.61714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-70.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No20c305.1$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8618237.4%68 W · 114 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed Yes68c303.88$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.342050%10 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No16c303.59$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.652045%9 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+39.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes77c300.13$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.033336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-34.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x07b9…0fbbbacked Yes75c300$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes80c300$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603647.2%17 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed Yes78c300$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.271850%9 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No18c297.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2315445.5%70 W · 84 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe9e…6944backed Yes69c289.29$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.294544.4%20 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cb…0357backed No32c286.72$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.043151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x103f…ac3abacked Yes71c279.86$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.862100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes78c265.59$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.0915431.2%48 W · 106 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes78c264.93$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.3412330.9%38 W · 85 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes71c259$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.197447.3%35 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xea4c…9f3bbacked Yes80c253.57$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.11666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+86.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No29c251.7$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2810947.7%52 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No18c250$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441020%2 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-68.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No18c249.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468234.1%28 W · 54 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No36c248.19$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.3421155.9%118 W · 93 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f27…7a85backed No15c238.72$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.81425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No27c216$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4217140.4%69 W · 102 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f48…e69bbacked No24c208.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.98933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No23c206.35$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1349511.5%57 W · 438 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b58…eb2bbacked Yes80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6aa…993cbacked Yes77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef62…0179backed Yes80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f13…3a2dbacked Yes80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick64cpaid+69.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd76…77bdbacked No24c196.9$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.123043.3%13 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+18.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6418…730cbacked No30c193.13$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5430%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No28c193$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5412545.6%57 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No30c189$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.78343.4%36 W · 47 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No15c188.21$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.099326.9%25 W · 68 L-8.2wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-24.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf81a…eba3backed Yes80c179.53$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16d1…f3e6backed Yes78c171.79$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.79475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.