TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will The Perfect Neighbor win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$183,495

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $183,495 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 251 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes65c12,322$8,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,048.717751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes1c11,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105311.3%6 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed No35c8,627$3,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,611.651936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc775…6b22backed Yes1c8,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801729.4%5 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.21per pick9cpaid+344.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x56eb…076abacked Yes67c6,845$4,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,579.372152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+38.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x25d7…895dbacked Yes1c4,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401020%2 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b4…1e3ebacked Yes62c2,673$1,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,670.241457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked No32c1,863$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,257.573938.5%15 W · 24 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8733…0626backed No36c1,500$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+28.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0eeb…0ca9backed Yes75c1,334$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick41cpaid-75.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No32c1,184$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.9229926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6794…b4cdbacked Yes68c1,032$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0336…4bb0backed No35c1,025$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.481625%4 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-36.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4207…b81bbacked No33c1,007$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+198.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x897a…b17ebacked Yes66c1,000$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6553339.4%13 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa71c…d0a8backed Yes53c999$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.471020%2 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-52.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x49dd…2a32backed No35c960$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.353923.1%9 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-52%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc04c…44ffbacked No34c939$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.741650%8 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes66c843.47$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.0448236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe80e…9211backed Yes68c818.64$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.171330.8%4 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-52%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed45…929dbacked Yes62c794$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.283745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9778…1d7bbacked No47c754$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.62933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b92…7585backed Yes47c746$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.621118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8717…f8a1backed No30c708$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.62540%10 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+37.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce12…0e76backed No41c700.89$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.8633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid+26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6ef…095ebacked Yes72c668$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.961127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.24per pick51cpaid-50%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x904d…8fd8backed No38c664.84$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.842944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d7c…a11bbacked No35c650$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.5540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x968f…a539backed No26c641$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.34955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+38%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d03…ef8ebacked Yes65c641$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.65540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…7da2backed Yes68c626.45$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.144544.4%20 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8de5…2b04backed Yes64c599.98$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.991060%6 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…7523backed Yes74c590$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.63141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4559…f02bbacked No38c555$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.752040%8 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes60c515.31$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.9517821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No33c511.95$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.0723041.7%96 W · 134 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked Yes65c507.15$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.082138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-46.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x173a…eb85backed Yes65c502$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.31030%3 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf100…2fcabacked No53c502$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.24450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb44…d3d2backed Yes65c500$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd41…3796backed Yes66c479$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.142369.6%16 W · 7 L+5.6wins+0.24per pick45cpaid+107.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1970…398dbacked Yes48c469.23$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.774918.4%9 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32d0…6070backed No31c455.44$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.251136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No39c452.25$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.416741.9%70 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60b3…55cfbacked No28c444$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.681154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+28.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7cc6…02ddbacked Yes46c440.64$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.814734%16 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe6e…059bbacked Yes73c409.05$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.72250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No34c406.98$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.8913337.6%50 W · 83 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a13…4593backed Yes60c406.81$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.091711.8%2 W · 15 L-3.5wins-0.20per pick32cpaid-83.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed No29c400$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2843228.1%9 W · 23 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-42.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0ff7…a220backed Yes70c386$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.21631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-42.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84d6…bca9backed No38c379$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.982857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd708…b9d2backed Yes69c376.81$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2602227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d2b…f025backed No35c373$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.45933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b32…c8a9backed Yes65c373$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.451533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes50c361.17$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.283417.6%6 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-49.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No36c344$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.642552%13 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes64c335$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.9910632.1%34 W · 72 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked No37c309.8$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.913324.2%8 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90a0…40afbacked Yes65c307.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7371…cadebacked Yes65c307.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200944.4%4 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.24per pick68cpaid-38.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x82b9…c6cebacked Yes65c306.28$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001952.6%10 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No32c299.99$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.9933123.9%79 W · 252 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7786…7914backed Yes66c284$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.44520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-73.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf47f…c0b2backed Yes72c277.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes61c275.53$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.433354.5%18 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No34c273.95$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.258752.9%46 W · 41 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes67c272.99$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.0113040%52 W · 78 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd22a…ac22backed Yes63c242$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.46110%0 W · 11 L-3.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd2c3…9cefbacked No37c242$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.46837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No39c235.76$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.9215641.7%65 W · 91 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb835…2e51backed No25c227.08$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.081650%8 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+79.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes65c225$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.2536538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e79…e974backed No28c224$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.282050%10 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No36c222.2$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.216127.9%17 W · 44 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes32c215.89$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.125612.5%7 W · 49 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-76%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf53c…00acbacked No47c212$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.361963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+33.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b3f…0fa5backed Yes65c210.16$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.6875%6 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1184…1b67backed No53c207$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.29922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-63.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd49…7fe8backed No32c200$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1361250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe132…ca8dbacked Yes76c200$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-35.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes60c200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12028528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes54c196.81$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1077450%37 W · 37 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes66c176$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.163740.5%15 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd263…54a7backed No35c173.98$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.09475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+74.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes65c166.87$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.867232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb820…ce82backed No35c166$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaece…87f3backed No33c164.93$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.161330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b91…297bbacked Yes70c161.18$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.07450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+105.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes49c159.32$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.424930.6%15 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes53c158.55$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.7314337.1%53 W · 90 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b1e…e465backed No35c157.2$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.18475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+73.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe309…44c2backed Yes70c157$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.92339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3156…7d39backed No36c154$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3395…7c66backed Yes49c152.62$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751250%6 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+49.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x636a…ec94backed Yes67c149.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Yes76c149.24$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.41520%1 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.42per pick62cpaid-68.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No34c147.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.851,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cc8…05b5backed Yes68c147.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003473.5%25 W · 9 L+4.4wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+22.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa5de…882dbacked Yes68c147.43$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-36.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.