TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$177,928

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $177,928 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x45b2…cbc1backed No1c11,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105311.3%6 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc775…6b22backed No1c8,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801729.4%5 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.21per pick9cpaid+344.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1230…8e43backed No1c4,570$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.760%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes21c4,371$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,431.651216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick10cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfe…5b91backed No1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dee…f426backed No2c2,003$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.23119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-88%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x963a…f044backed Yes19c2,000$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,617.25450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+115.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes21c1,285$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02133123.9%79 W · 252 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1970…398dbacked Yes18c1,003$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826.44918.4%9 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes24c1,000$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.12857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x414b…0d3fbacked No78c999.99$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.991040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b7a…2c42backed Yes23c967.27$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+337.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes26c769.54$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.54742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+43.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x61a8…f658backed Yes22c646$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.882045%9 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6240…3727backed Yes21c645.06$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.44633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes21c585.6$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.622937.9%11 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No67c584.25$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.6123041.7%96 W · 134 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked No77c555$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.463938.5%15 W · 24 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3d25…5f2ebacked Yes18c543.89$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb04e…d4aabacked Yes19c528.3$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.35414.8%8 W · 46 L-0.3wins0.00per pick15cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No80c506$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.8429926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes22c499.98$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.982123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f07…2036backed Yes12c484$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.621827.8%5 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a3b…3d4abacked Yes22c444.45$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.45812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86a2…02c0backed Yes20c443$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick32cpaid+25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcc1…d40bbacked No80c443$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.41947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee37…89febacked Yes29c399.99$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.991040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+44.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8d9…08d2backed No78c390$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.2944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes19c386.92$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.527619.7%15 W · 61 L+0.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes10c378.98$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.8510632.1%34 W · 72 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes19c366.7$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.251,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6368…d45ebacked Yes10c304.7$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.72556%14 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+30.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x314c…69ddbacked No73c274.36$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes11c269.91$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.2417821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c07…956bbacked No78c256$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.681030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-54.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x782b…ff64backed Yes41c250$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+141.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd44…f151backed Yes21c242.86$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.867839.7%31 W · 47 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c66…8944backed Yes22c232.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.17650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+40.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes18c228.24$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.1648414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x64be…c653backed Yes23c221$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.251637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-20.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x814a…ab7abacked No75c200.01$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.61837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-39.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed No77c200$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15423741.4%98 W · 139 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes20c197.6$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.041,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes22c183.41$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.784930.6%15 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87e5…6444backed Yes23c173.91$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.91147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-68.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Yes69c170.4$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.6512938.8%50 W · 79 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed No80c170$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1365135.3%18 W · 33 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-42.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked No79c167$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.3124634.6%85 W · 161 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes23c162.11$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.6420841.8%87 W · 121 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a7…4d86backed Yes24c151$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.762254.5%12 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+48.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked No79c148.84$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.482227.3%6 W · 16 L-5.4wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-56.1%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No78c146.79$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.536538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xde9f…cd36backed No76c146$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.961030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d61…ce94backed Yes21c142.86$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ed6…aabfbacked Yes31c132.29$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.24450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a25…bb6bbacked No79c126.79$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.61944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4708…8746backed Yes24c125.58$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.58425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes28c124.62$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.483336.4%12 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+26.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4457…e7b9backed Yes25c120$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No74c118.85$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.7315641.7%65 W · 91 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf5c…3912backed Yes20c109.64$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.541353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+36.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked Yes17c106.64$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.753324.2%8 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes10c104.82$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.611549.7%15 W · 139 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34a1…0847backed Yes25c100.03$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+100.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed Yes26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745625%14 W · 42 L-0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed Yes25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754650%23 W · 23 L+8.3wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+61.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x6ff9…3427backed Yes22c100$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90746.8%5 W · 69 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90614.9%3 W · 58 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-31.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38cf…7148backed Yes29c100$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa724…cb96backed Yes23c99.48$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.61442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6689…b9dcbacked Yes17c89.82$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+488.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes28c81.48$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.66127.9%17 W · 44 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc137…2ca7backed Yes31c79.88$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.88520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-36.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf886…34bcbacked Yes22c76.73$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.83250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+127.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49dd…2a32backed No78c75$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.53923.1%9 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-52%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b91…297bbacked Yes17c74.97$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.05450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+105.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x767b…244abacked Yes24c74.17$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.17560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+46.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2840…f0e7backed Yes20c73.49$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.49977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick57cpaid+61.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes19c71.64$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.763417.6%6 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-49.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes24c70.87$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.9567232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfca…2db8backed Yes20c70$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.8825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2e5…925fbacked Yes23c65.22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.22837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+37.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf84a…9224backed Yes24c62.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+174.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e01…757abacked Yes25c60$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458231.7%26 W · 56 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid+22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed No80c60$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ac1…513abacked No79c60$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1850%4 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes26c59.76$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.2710537.1%39 W · 66 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xef49…932fbacked Yes20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402536%9 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e9c…6216backed Yes22c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395444.4%24 W · 30 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No80c48.91$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1320668.9%142 W · 64 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e6f…f19dbacked No71c47.74$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.022751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked No54c40.78$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8413534.8%47 W · 88 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf42c…85b0backed Yes25c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+100%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No79c40$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.610244.1%45 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3149…c4c5backed Yes25c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+77.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb920…7922backed Yes25c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304445.5%20 W · 24 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1cb…48c5backed Yes25c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+189%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd86…1f67backed Yes32c31.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.25955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No77c27.13$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.013619.4%7 W · 29 L-9.7wins-0.27per pick46cpaid-65.7%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.