Movies · resolved market
Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6b9615936d650b47b51cdd29a676e4d236d8fb62da0b2a3393b677e4f1ee718
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $177,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $177,928 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 1c | 11,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed No | 1c | 8,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 9cpaid | +344.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 1c | 4,570$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 21c | 4,371$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,431.65 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…5b91backed No | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dee…f426backed No | 2c | 2,003$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -88%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x963a…f044backed Yes | 19c | 2,000$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,617.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 21c | 1,285$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,003$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.4 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.1 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked No | 78c | 999.99$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7a…2c42backed Yes | 23c | 967.27$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +337.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes | 26c | 769.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…f658backed Yes | 22c | 646$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.88 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…3727backed Yes | 21c | 645.06$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 21c | 585.6$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.62 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 67c | 584.25$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.61 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked No | 77c | 555$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.46 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d25…5f2ebacked Yes | 18c | 543.89$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb04e…d4aabacked Yes | 19c | 528.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.3 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 80c | 506$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.84 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 22c | 499.98$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.98 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…2036backed Yes | 12c | 484$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.62 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3b…3d4abacked Yes | 22c | 444.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…02c0backed Yes | 20c | 443$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…d40bbacked No | 80c | 443$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.4 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee37…89febacked Yes | 29c | 399.99$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…08d2backed No | 78c | 390$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 19c | 386.92$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.52 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 10c | 378.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.85 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 366.7$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.25 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…d45ebacked Yes | 10c | 304.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.7 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x314c…69ddbacked No | 73c | 274.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 11c | 269.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.24 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c07…956bbacked No | 78c | 256$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.68 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x782b…ff64backed Yes | 41c | 250$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +141.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd44…f151backed Yes | 21c | 242.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.86 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c66…8944backed Yes | 22c | 232.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 228.24$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.16 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 23c | 221$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.25 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…ab7abacked No | 75c | 200.01$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 197.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.04 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 22c | 183.41$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.78 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e5…6444backed Yes | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.91 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 69c | 170.4$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 80c | 170$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 79c | 167$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.31 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 23c | 162.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.64 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a7…4d86backed Yes | 24c | 151$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.76 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked No | 79c | 148.84$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.48 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -5.4wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 146.79$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.5 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…cd36backed No | 76c | 146$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.96 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d61…ce94backed Yes | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed6…aabfbacked Yes | 31c | 132.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked No | 79c | 126.79$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.61 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…8746backed Yes | 24c | 125.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 28c | 124.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.48 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4457…e7b9backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 74c | 118.85$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.73 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed Yes | 20c | 109.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.54 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Yes | 17c | 106.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.75 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 10c | 104.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.61 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…0847backed Yes | 25c | 100.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…3427backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 74 | 6.8%5 W · 69 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38cf…7148backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa724…cb96backed Yes | 23c | 99.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6689…b9dcbacked Yes | 17c | 89.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 28c | 81.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.6 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc137…2ca7backed Yes | 31c | 79.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…34bcbacked Yes | 22c | 76.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +127.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed No | 78c | 75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b91…297bbacked Yes | 17c | 74.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +105.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767b…244abacked Yes | 24c | 74.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2840…f0e7backed Yes | 20c | 73.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.49 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 19c | 71.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.76 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 24c | 70.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…2db8backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…925fbacked Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf84a…9224backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +174.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac1…513abacked No | 79c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 26c | 59.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…932fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9c…6216backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 80c | 48.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…f19dbacked No | 71c | 47.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 54c | 40.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42c…85b0backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3149…c4c5backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…7922backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1cb…48c5backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +189%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd86…1f67backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 77c | 27.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -9.7wins | -0.27per pick | 46cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Come See Me in the Good Light win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Cutting Through Rocks win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will The Alabama Solution win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will The Perfect Neighbor win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.