Movies · resolved market
Will The Alabama Solution win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d3efdff77a05923cb3981522a739a5c119f72ffcb2ff1ce37b796864463a9f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,967 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Yes | 5c | 1,433$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.59 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 5c | 1,405$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.35 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed Yes | 5c | 1,002$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3879…bc77backed Yes | 5c | 861.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…c3c8backed Yes | 7c | 726.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 3c | 461$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0aa…3984backed Yes | 5c | 392.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 4c | 379.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 330.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2dd…daedbacked Yes | 5c | 287.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 7c | 206.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 199.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 185.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 6c | 180.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 158.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7898…42cfbacked Yes | 17c | 151.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will The Alabama Solution win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Come See Me in the Good Light win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Cutting Through Rocks win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will The Perfect Neighbor win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.