Chess · resolved market
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2024 US Chess Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bd287ddb1f536e9e59166124ade000b8f6cc7fd66afe0076fba4a7058a09048
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 70c | 2,059$1,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7718…0d55backed No | 34c | 2,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 62c | 1,601$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.81 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e91…ea34backed Yes | 77c | 1,569$1,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 40c | 999.99$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 80c | 504$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed No | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 66c | 494$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe4…6db0backed No | 11c | 448.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae3…1540backed Yes | 60c | 401.71$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 8c | 372.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad04…e581backed No | 13c | 317.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes | 80c | 315.89$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…ee52backed No | 31c | 299.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 14c | 289.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed Yes | 67c | 266.02$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.57 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0f…d174backed No | 39c | 250.94$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb628…95c0backed No | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4294…ee29backed Yes | 77c | 206.12$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc8…05b5backed Yes | 61c | 205.65$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a90…265dbacked No | 7c | 199.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed No | 14c | 190$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…6cd9backed No | 8c | 146.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…db6ebacked Yes | 74c | 139$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9395…7b2bbacked Yes | 75c | 137.83$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b27…ed84backed Yes | 79c | 125.44$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 20c | 119$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c0…deabbacked No | 13c | 115.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…fc1fbacked No | 12c | 100.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0232…9391backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f9…2573backed Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076e…adf5backed Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a27…eacbbacked Yes | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd160…8a16backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb4…179fbacked Yes | 75c | 34.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…4f34backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf772…36a6backed No | 43c | 31.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x489b…9f3bbacked Yes | 58c | 20.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 69c | 19.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2024 US Chess Championship?this page
- Will Abhimanyu Mishra win the 2024 US Chess Championship?No won
- Will Awonder Liang win the 2024 US Chess Championship?No won
- Will Grigoriy Oparin win the 2024 US Chess Championship?No won
- Will Hans Niemann win the 2024 US Chess Championship?No won
- Will Leinier Dominguez win the 2024 US Chess Championship?No won
- Will Levon Aronian win the 2024 US Chess Championship?No won
- Will Ray Robson win the 2024 US Chess Championship?No won
- Will Sam Sevian win the 2024 US Chess Championship?No won
- Will Sam Shankland win the 2024 US Chess Championship?No won
- Will Wesley So win the 2024 US Chess Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.