Chess · resolved market
Will Hans Niemann win the 2024 US Chess Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4f3c92ae1fd4f180946fbda6ed0e92ea4def79e4e942080e2a75148ce4fc2ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13c6…f8d0backed Yes | 0c | 12,034$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c0…deabbacked Yes | 5c | 1,790$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.38 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…db6ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,767$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.91 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7718…0d55backed Yes | 23c | 1,199$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe4…6db0backed Yes | 4c | 566.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 513.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 6c | 483.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdf…45cebacked Yes | 6c | 404.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed Yes | 12c | 327.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe226…d557backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 18c | 265.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed Yes | 15c | 255.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…548fbacked Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 15c | 126.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…6e17backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0f…d174backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa648…383dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hans Niemann win the 2024 US Chess Championship?this page
- Will Abhimanyu Mishra win the 2024 US Chess Championship?No won
- Will Awonder Liang win the 2024 US Chess Championship?No won
- Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2024 US Chess Championship?Yes won
- Will Grigoriy Oparin win the 2024 US Chess Championship?No won
- Will Leinier Dominguez win the 2024 US Chess Championship?No won
- Will Levon Aronian win the 2024 US Chess Championship?No won
- Will Ray Robson win the 2024 US Chess Championship?No won
- Will Sam Sevian win the 2024 US Chess Championship?No won
- Will Sam Shankland win the 2024 US Chess Championship?No won
- Will Wesley So win the 2024 US Chess Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.