TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$168,156
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$182,209

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,156 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1a2f…647abacked No0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid-58.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked No5c18,310$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.24378.1%3 W · 34 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick22cpaid-86.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No4c13,943$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.2521033.3%70 W · 140 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x819f…f3e7backed No4c8,075$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.362536%9 W · 16 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick22cpaid+99.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf872…9b11backed No19c4,300$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.54633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+39.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec4d…be21backed No12c3,734$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.06714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-66%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No8c3,528$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.5714729.9%44 W · 103 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No8c2,880$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.19035.6%32 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No6c2,770$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.74032.5%13 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32fd…5c8bbacked No6c2,317$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.63630.6%11 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-46.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No6c2,042$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.582941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+19.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No4c1,832$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.438332.5%27 W · 56 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe11a…c40bbacked Yes80c1,822$1,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371875%6 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No6c1,604$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0713143.5%57 W · 74 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb24…496bbacked No1c1,582$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x808a…ef3fbacked No5c1,532$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.072254.5%12 W · 10 L+3.9wins+0.18per pick37cpaid+125.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked No5c1,331$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658535.3%30 W · 55 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No2c1,035$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2613625.7%35 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No6c975.25$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0310340.8%42 W · 61 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes47c915.71$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.616544.2%73 W · 92 L+10.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e9b…a0ecbacked No19c833.45$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.291546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No10c780$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.5315431.2%48 W · 106 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11f8…ed31backed No6c756$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.721747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+168.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No6c744.66$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7818237.4%68 W · 114 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No11c721.35$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.0424831%77 W · 171 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-37.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes71c602.08$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.0322848.7%111 W · 117 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No6c600$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.28234.1%28 W · 54 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No28c478.06$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.8217140.4%69 W · 102 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No7c440$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5110947.7%52 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x747b…a2d4backed No15c395$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.21931.6%6 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No14c393.45$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0910034%34 W · 66 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff92…d07cbacked Yes66c384.97$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.17475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+35.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No14c371.17$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5712049.2%59 W · 61 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed No60c360$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2162259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+22.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x955c…990fbacked Yes74c355$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.9366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No6c349.46$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.371020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed No6c328.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.938638.4%33 W · 53 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51b1…7865backed Yes25c327$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.61540%6 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked No41c300$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12322833.8%77 W · 151 L+13.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No7c293.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.272218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-63.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9752…8087backed No69c266.39$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.52955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick62cpaid+6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x271e…f001backed No11c261$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7140%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No6c257.96$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.193836.8%14 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-15.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd3e3…67dcbacked Yes42c250$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1463961.5%24 W · 15 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+23.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9b2c…2151backed No5c248.43$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.36616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick6cpaid+107.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x976e…ecf3backed Yes55c210.29$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.122055%11 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes71c208.92$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.975234.6%18 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No10c208.15$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.610622.6%24 W · 82 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Yes79c200$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433132.3%10 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0116…fdf7backed Yes51c193.15$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.21475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+32.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed No10c192.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3080…337bbacked Yes80c186.79$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.365030%15 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cc7…bc74backed No6c177.46$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dca…3c13backed Yes79c151$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.312030%6 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x646d…0d58backed No20c150.1$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked No9c144$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.841823.8%7 W · 175 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-50%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes71c144$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7824861.7%153 W · 95 L+24.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf6f6…0e74backed No14c142$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.463941%16 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No13c136$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.359010%9 W · 81 L-20.0wins-0.22per pick32cpaid-81.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No38c125.17$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.927324.7%18 W · 55 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-44.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x97d6…fc6dbacked Yes80c125.07$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.07580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked No20c122$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9319643.4%85 W · 111 L+15.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed No70c122$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.67843.6%34 W · 44 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2955…0738backed No13c115$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.954136.6%15 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb546…ca22backed No16c113$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.08742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-40.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No49c110.5$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.389646.9%45 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No10c107.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.62250%11 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04d5…188fbacked Yes66c107$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.583363.6%21 W · 12 L+4.1wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+17.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed No15c105.66$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6118041.1%74 W · 106 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No14c102.85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.173438.2%13 W · 21 L-5.0wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-32.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf824…e3eabacked Yes72c101.39$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cc8…05b5backed Yes66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x95cd…b9a8backed Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-33.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x13a9…e573backed No14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.94119.5%8 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick21cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236653%35 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6b2…3caabacked No29c90.86$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.353036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-34.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd58c…8954backed Yes44c88.28$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.442832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes28c88$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.587447.3%35 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3560…11f0backed Yes46c84.12$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.57333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes44c79$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447437.8%28 W · 46 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No42c77$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2434129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes68c76.11$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6144935.2%158 W · 291 L-37.6wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7c83…d800backed No26c74.84$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.18333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-47.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96d1…ec74backed No28c74.11$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No39c64.4$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2566914.8%99 W · 570 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No48c61.68$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.615950.8%30 W · 29 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x194a…0f76backed Yes48c59.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.47per pick20cpaid+554%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No28c59.14$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.566845.6%31 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x540a…64c9backed Yes69c59$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.292339.1%9 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-37.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No44c55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9821155.9%118 W · 93 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed Yes33c54$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.937852.6%41 W · 37 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcd3…1a5abacked Yes39c52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.721553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e42…a043backed No20c51.6$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.321315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-46.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.58132.1%26 W · 55 L-8.8wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9592…a8fdbacked Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-60.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed No50c49.42$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.751540%6 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc534…b734backed Yes42c48.95$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.391747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdad6…0d14backed Yes38c45.93$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.482254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes68c45$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.412440.3%50 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1bf…45bdbacked Yes60c44.86$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.061346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-13.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.