Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Perry Johnson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4607b688346dfbe7b5fa5e805d16e5b7878d60bf2e1d4c7c0192665ffeafdf9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 6c | 24,943$1,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,467.93 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf872…9b11backed Yes | 18c | 11,363$2,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,063.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 7c | 9,106$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.85 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 5c | 4,255$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.04 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…f3e7backed Yes | 6c | 3,565$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.07 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 28c | 2,050$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.08 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes | 4c | 1,214$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 21c | 818.57$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.24 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 73c | 759$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.93 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 22c | 756.52$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.7 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 75c | 750$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.5 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 27c | 667.88$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.61 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…337bbacked No | 77c | 661.38$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.82 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 658.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…1362backed Yes | 46c | 526.75$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.55 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 56c | 485$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.26 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 446.7$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…7865backed No | 64c | 433$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.88 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 76c | 401.62$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.39 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5e…f1b0backed Yes | 4c | 399.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…ecf3backed Yes | 45c | 395.53$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.54 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 12c | 393.51$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 4c | 364.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x096b…bf95backed No | 74c | 357.59$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e3…67dcbacked No | 62c | 323.5$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.24 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9afc…314bbacked Yes | 8c | 309.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 19c | 295.65$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 107 | 22.4%24 W · 83 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 73c | 258.97$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.68 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 45c | 253$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.84 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 43c | 214$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.02 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc4…a38dbacked Yes | 39c | 213$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.8 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…7dfbbacked Yes | 5c | 210$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 19c | 209$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 38c | 169$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.28 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…e69bbacked No | 38c | 157.05$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 36c | 136.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 60c | 132$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 15c | 125.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf195…07fcbacked Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 15c | 119.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 116.02$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 76c | 113$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 10c | 107.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 71c | 107.13$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea6…180dbacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc21…d4b0backed No | 58c | 86.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 25c | 83.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 40c | 79.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3560…11f0backed Yes | 37c | 71.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 54c | 67.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 65c | 61.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3d…597bbacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 56c | 57.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c83…d800backed Yes | 18c | 56.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bf…45bdbacked Yes | 29c | 52.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…47a2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd99c…8490backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd65…304fbacked Yes | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 76c | 43.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb651…2089backed No | 59c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 61c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 53c | 39.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04d5…188fbacked Yes | 44c | 37.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 53c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 40c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 32c | 31.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 58c | 27.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 79c | 22.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 80c | 15.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…3b18backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Perry Johnson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?this page
- Will Aric Nesbitt win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?Yes won
- Will Mike Cox win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Tom Leonard win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.