Ukraine · resolved market
Will Zelensky say "we need" 3 or more times during his UN address?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6587d3452a2e9417a7a21a70e74c258b6995933ab5984ac4cdce59c5e179dd00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e76…ef4ebacked Yes | 41c | 5,231$2,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,065.68 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 64c | 5,000$3,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,196.57 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…d1c7backed Yes | 36c | 4,256$1,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,723.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 25cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…9eb7backed No | 62c | 4,183$2,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,601.87 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed No | 1c | 3,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,649.99 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked No | 1c | 2,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 32c | 2,096$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,430.43 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 67c | 1,729$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.63 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 61c | 1,556$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.97 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72a6…6b75backed No | 63c | 1,398$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0a…8340backed No | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79a1…5801backed No | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a78…4d4ebacked Yes | 32c | 700$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6205…577abacked Yes | 33c | 646.09$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 63c | 501.07$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.36 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…7123backed Yes | 34c | 500$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc26…24d0backed Yes | 40c | 495$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…bd4ebacked Yes | 38c | 457$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.77 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…d81fbacked No | 64c | 390.69$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ed…ddadbacked Yes | 31c | 323.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd1…b557backed Yes | 39c | 300$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc8…05b5backed No | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…f162backed Yes | 28c | 275$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 25cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe219…d8afbacked Yes | 37c | 271.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x137f…968dbacked Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 62c | 174.49$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.14 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 169.86$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.61 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…0569backed Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce1…d77bbacked No | 64c | 157.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01f4…3356backed Yes | 26c | 154.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 36c | 150$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.3 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda92…264dbacked No | 64c | 150$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 48cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…1e09backed Yes | 29c | 139.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce61…8ef6backed Yes | 38c | 139.47$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45bd…d412backed Yes | 38c | 130.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x757b…7f5abacked Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +344.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 28c | 111$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b7…c654backed Yes | 38c | 102.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…998bbacked Yes | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf7…712cbacked Yes | 29c | 102$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b9…9719backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +140.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5b…6759backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa936…3b90backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb550…2bacbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93be…4c50backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3676…c975backed Yes | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7607…46d9backed Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a5…98d0backed Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f6…aea4backed No | 69c | 80$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd385…af0dbacked No | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x296a…c8a6backed Yes | 38c | 79.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ab…3afdbacked Yes | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ba…42a3backed Yes | 40c | 75.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa89d…52e1backed Yes | 37c | 72.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 28c | 67.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x569a…a8abbacked Yes | 45c | 64.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x039e…c5e0backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe67d…f320backed Yes | 33c | 57.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1324…3931backed Yes | 41c | 56.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…09cabacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6c…287cbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2544…156bbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +111.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x576e…0995backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb33…5924backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b3…2159backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +115.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa29…5eeebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41bb…2526backed Yes | 36c | 34.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec9…be0dbacked Yes | 29c | 34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7204…f994backed Yes | 33c | 33.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc010…89f3backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x171e…6141backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e67…f4a7backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d0…8e63backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…647fbacked No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa47c…d464backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 61c | 22.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…8424backed Yes | 54c | 22.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad0a…e84fbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zelensky say "we need" 3 or more times during his UN address?this page
- Will Zelensky say "HIMARS" during his UN address?No won
- Will Zelensky say "Kursk" during his UN address?No won
- Will Zelensky say "Putin" during his UN address?Yes won
- Will Zelensky say "Russia" 10 or more times during his UN address?Yes won
- Will Zelensky say "criminal" during his UN address?No won
- Will Zelensky say "money" 5 or more times during his UN address?No won
- Will Zelensky say "nuclear" during his UN address?Yes won
- Will Zelensky say "peace" 3 or more times during his UN address?Yes won
- Will Zelensky say "slava Ukraini" during his UN address?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.