TailMyPicks
Market

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Zelensky say "we need" 3 or more times during his UN address?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,025
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,688

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,025 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7e76…ef4ebacked Yes41c5,231$2,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,065.68911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-73.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed No64c5,000$3,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,196.571526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-58.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x79c4…d1c7backed Yes36c4,256$1,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,723.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick25cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62d2…9eb7backed No62c4,183$2,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,601.87944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd13…e6f1backed No1c3,500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked No55c3,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,649.994852.1%25 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a20…101cbacked No1c2,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked Yes32c2,096$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,430.434425%11 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No67c1,729$1,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,161.634045%18 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No61c1,556$942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941.975352.8%28 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x72a6…6b75backed No63c1,398$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.53333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea0a…8340backed No60c1,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-79.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79a1…5801backed No63c1,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a78…4d4ebacked Yes32c700$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6205…577abacked Yes33c646.09$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+63.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No63c501.07$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.363253.1%17 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9416…7123backed Yes34c500$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3301100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc26…24d0backed Yes40c495$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c5…bd4ebacked Yes38c457$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.772114.3%3 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-52.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bba…d81fbacked No64c390.69$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.4366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6ed…ddadbacked Yes31c323.38$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.38366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+56.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cd1…b557backed Yes39c300$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1831010%1 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-74.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6cc8…05b5backed No69c289.86$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-32.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf750…f162backed Yes28c275$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.1757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.32per pick25cpaid+120.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe219…d8afbacked Yes37c271.2$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+35.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x137f…968dbacked Yes38c263.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.16728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-37.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No62c174.49$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.147761%47 W · 30 L+7.7wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+18.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No69c169.86$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.6141736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa568…0569backed Yes59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ce1…d77bbacked No64c157.34$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01f4…3356backed Yes26c154.45$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+90.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked Yes36c150$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.35850%29 W · 29 L+6.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+23.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xda92…264dbacked No64c150$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.6977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.29per pick48cpaid+65.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x148f…1e09backed Yes29c139.83$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.83333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid+16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce61…8ef6backed Yes38c139.47$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45bd…d412backed Yes38c130.77$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.77633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+212.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x757b…7f5abacked Yes45c111.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.112100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+344.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b7e…4562backed Yes28c111$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.92742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37b7…c654backed Yes38c102.8$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.66425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf263…998bbacked Yes39c102.56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.56366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+54.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaf7…712cbacked Yes29c102$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+20.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75b9…9719backed Yes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+140.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f5b…6759backed Yes39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa936…3b90backed No72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.7450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb550…2bacbacked Yes36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x93be…4c50backed Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3676…c975backed Yes33c90.91$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.91450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7607…46d9backed Yes35c85.71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.71333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6a5…98d0backed Yes36c83.33$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.33728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2f6…aea4backed No69c80$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd385…af0dbacked No63c79.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x296a…c8a6backed Yes38c79.29$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+164.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x75ab…3afdbacked Yes39c76.92$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ba…42a3backed Yes40c75.57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.572100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+106.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa89d…52e1backed Yes37c72.49$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.36450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed Yes28c67.04$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.62166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+37.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x569a…a8abbacked Yes45c64.84$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x039e…c5e0backed Yes33c60.61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.611030%3 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-21.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe67d…f320backed Yes33c57.55$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1324…3931backed Yes41c56.32$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+22.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…09cabacked Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x67a9…c417backed Yes39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.52722.2%6 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-32.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc6c…287cbacked Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick32cpaid+49.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2544…156bbacked Yes35c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick35cpaid+111.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x576e…0995backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-16.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbb33…5924backed Yes39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7b3…2159backed Yes33c45.45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.452100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+115.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa29…5eeebacked Yes25c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+78.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41bb…2526backed Yes36c34.45$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.22250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+40.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec9…be0dbacked Yes29c34$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241030%3 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7204…f994backed Yes33c33.94$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc010…89f3backed Yes45c33.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.33366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x171e…6141backed Yes40c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e67…f4a7backed Yes40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0d0…8e63backed Yes40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f49…647fbacked No64c23.44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa47c…d464backed No64c23.44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-68.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No61c22.69$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8439429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0509…8424backed Yes54c22.07$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.07250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad0a…e84fbacked No64c15.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.