Ukraine · resolved market
Will Zelensky say "Kursk" during his UN address?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe08ea37704525769619dcd1f198a1f710c168a3180d5d38ebb1e70de1ed94fa5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked No | 60c | 836.24$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.99 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…9eb7backed No | 66c | 657$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.65 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Yes | 36c | 418.47$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf351…73bfbacked Yes | 54c | 413.99$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 59c | 356.46$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.73 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed Yes | 11c | 318$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…d81fbacked No | 74c | 270.22$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…3cd9backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd1…b557backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.85 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 21c | 186.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda92…264dbacked No | 55c | 153.78$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.29 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 48cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d4…8627backed Yes | 67c | 149.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6c…08bfbacked Yes | 38c | 138.42$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…1e09backed Yes | 42c | 120.47$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf887…58fcbacked Yes | 25c | 110.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 67c | 110$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 105$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 64c | 102.26$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 36c | 78.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa93d…b5ecbacked No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 65c | 64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d6…4a00backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 31c | 52.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdec…17a2backed Yes | 69c | 43.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…9aecbacked Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…23babacked Yes | 45c | 34.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a5…98d0backed Yes | 65c | 30.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…da90backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked No | 45c | 22.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5781…95a2backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3c…1613backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x171e…6141backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a71…3c62backed Yes | 62c | 19.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +67%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc010…89f3backed Yes | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zelensky say "Kursk" during his UN address?this page
- Will Zelensky say "HIMARS" during his UN address?No won
- Will Zelensky say "Putin" during his UN address?Yes won
- Will Zelensky say "Russia" 10 or more times during his UN address?Yes won
- Will Zelensky say "criminal" during his UN address?No won
- Will Zelensky say "money" 5 or more times during his UN address?No won
- Will Zelensky say "nuclear" during his UN address?Yes won
- Will Zelensky say "peace" 3 or more times during his UN address?Yes won
- Will Zelensky say "slava Ukraini" during his UN address?Yes won
- Will Zelensky say "we need" 3 or more times during his UN address?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.