TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$674,724
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$842,796

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $674,724 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 293 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb376…ea30backed Yes1c38,686$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.9370%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54a0…742dbacked Yes1c11,793$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.750%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c11,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331712.9%5 W · 166 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-37.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xce5b…ee17backed Yes15c10,492$1,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,581.482814.3%4 W · 24 L-7.3wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-78.1%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x539d…0213backed Yes5c5,926$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.32254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c5,580$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.563283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a09…e317backed No75c5,504$4,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,375.982684.6%22 W · 4 L+9.8wins+0.38per pick47cpaid+125.5%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x8c63…3b12backed Yes3c5,500$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48d7…c88fbacked Yes5c5,100$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.940%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x064f…ff5abacked Yes3c4,980$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.51040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-47.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dba…e6fbbacked Yes3c4,800$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes3c4,162$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.75618.2%5 W · 56 L-7.7wins-0.13per pick21cpaid-82%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3d7a…ccbfbacked Yes1c3,993$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-43.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes3c3,760$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$947021.4%15 W · 55 L-6.4wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-44.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c3,681$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.842541.6%4 W · 250 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes0c3,500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141424.2%6 W · 136 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c3,088$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.492442%5 W · 239 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fd2…a8c9backed Yes17c2,503$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No67c2,495$1,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825.8511833.9%40 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes1c2,374$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8766.6%5 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2721…325bbacked Yes5c2,322$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.523438.2%13 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3be…5ba7backed Yes36c1,980$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.62333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+156.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc21d…f881backed Yes36c1,892$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dba…a4dfbacked Yes29c1,888$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe93a…23ccbacked Yes36c1,883$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd932…6c06backed Yes36c1,818$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf23a…dad3backed Yes36c1,788$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb1d…85a5backed Yes36c1,772$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75b7…b1f9backed Yes36c1,768$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e65…f46bbacked Yes36c1,766$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa66d…f05dbacked Yes36c1,756$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd16…2bc8backed Yes36c1,735$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.46333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+156.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf83e…629ebacked Yes36c1,722$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde7e…bf12backed Yes30c1,690$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc773…d55cbacked Yes3c1,680$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+35.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked No70c1,679$1,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.843450%17 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+5.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x88c7…a1debacked Yes3c1,674$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.651020%2 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-53.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4059…21dbbacked Yes27c1,664$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76e2…5910backed Yes36c1,638$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.64333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+156.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1090…eb93backed Yes27c1,637$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.7630%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4dc…a6bcbacked Yes30c1,636$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2889…358ebacked Yes30c1,582$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08c3…1f74backed Yes27c1,533$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x741c…8c63backed Yes30c1,500$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x314c…b93bbacked Yes27c1,495$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes3c1,442$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.962377.2%17 W · 220 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7475…b82abacked Yes28c1,428$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed No68c1,427$964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.1917859.6%106 W · 72 L+18.3wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe9b0…82e7backed Yes36c1,389$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe744…e1c6backed Yes30c1,388$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff16…7511backed No68c1,324$904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.432450%12 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+40.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes7c1,323$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.279228.3%26 W · 66 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5afd…63fcbacked Yes29c1,250$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xceb3…26fbbacked No64c1,234$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.12100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick64cpaid+57.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60e6…6205backed Yes30c1,215$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.7930%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc67a…9b98backed Yes3c1,212$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3240%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe978…c84bbacked Yes29c1,201$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ed…079abacked Yes3c1,195$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.353441.2%14 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xecb4…bdcbbacked No64c1,191$762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.582100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick64cpaid+57.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47e7…0af4backed Yes36c1,180$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x645d…085bbacked No64c1,176$753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.322100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick64cpaid+57.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01f3…5822backed No64c1,145$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.312100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f2d…9df3backed No64c1,145$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.312100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick64cpaid+57.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac33…61cbbacked No64c1,145$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.242100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd81a…888cbacked Yes30c1,140$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes4c1,130$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.675111.8%6 W · 45 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick5cpaid-20%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9620…5b50backed No64c1,110$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.642100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x546b…0405backed No63c1,100$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4061883.3%15 W · 3 L+7.4wins+0.41per pick42cpaid+144.9%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x0f45…8525backed No64c1,090$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.442100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x555e…5c49backed No64c1,085$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.742100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick64cpaid+57.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7ec…04f3backed Yes28c1,081$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3541…c91ebacked No64c1,081$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.122100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fc0…c3a7backed No64c1,075$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.112100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe739…22edbacked No64c1,075$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3872100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8246…9e57backed No64c1,071$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.422100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1848…bd82backed No64c1,071$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.422100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xed5b…5cfcbacked No64c1,070$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.242100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick64cpaid+57.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6a2…211cbacked No64c1,065$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.512100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1d9…a8abbacked No64c1,060$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.712100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ffb…2330backed No64c1,060$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.642100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e08…7788backed Yes15c1,057$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.533426.5%9 W · 25 L-5.6wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-55.6%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xb851…476fbacked Yes3c1,050$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x050f…2d10backed No64c1,046$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.452100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cc3…506abacked No64c1,036$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.782100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeff4…befebacked No64c1,035$662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.642100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb12…58f1backed Yes36c1,032$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8365…ade0backed No64c1,030$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.912100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick64cpaid+57.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes3c1,027$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.993495.7%20 W · 329 L-25.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-66.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa438…bffebacked No64c1,021$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.522100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick64cpaid+57.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41ac…631abacked Yes5c1,002$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…06d6backed No73c1,000$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaac7…b3a1backed Yes4c1,000$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00c7…a740backed Yes27c931.1$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x10ef…1b1cbacked Yes27c930.29$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a96…1d8abacked No73c925.3$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7e4…aa38backed No73c925.3$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3062…c32abacked No73c920.7$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9fc…9822backed No73c920.3$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cc2…1372backed No70c913$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.92100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick72cpaid+39.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2087…583fbacked No70c912$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick72cpaid+39.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.