TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Bulls

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lakersof Lakers, Bulls
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,224,799
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,308,855

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,224,799 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,291 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x07b8…8e25backed Lakers53c334,691$177,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157,304.5923257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf031…c80cbacked Bulls47c270,063$126,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126,929.646841.2%28 W · 40 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Bulls47c158,650$74,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74,565.5954539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Lakers52c79,521$41,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,844.0414358.7%84 W · 59 L+12.9wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5877…d894backed Lakers53c65,000$34,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,5509043.3%39 W · 51 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3ae…3020backed Bulls50c51,545$25,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,772.592951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Lakers53c50,000$26,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,699.9919751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6fd…f43ebacked Bulls48c38,025$18,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,25210746.7%50 W · 57 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Bulls48c34,207$16,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,389.0146145.6%210 W · 251 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x062a…c2a3backed Bulls48c33,800$16,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,08619048.4%92 W · 98 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Bulls7c30,410$2,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,172.381,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Bulls47c30,000$14,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,20023245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Lakers63c29,208$18,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,666.574,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Bulls4c27,903$1,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,183.511,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Lakers52c26,000$13,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,479.9917554.9%96 W · 79 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Bulls10c25,144$2,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,550.851,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Lakers50c25,000$12,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,50013248.5%64 W · 68 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa996…8aacbacked Bulls47c25,000$11,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,75014243%61 W · 81 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked Bulls0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Bulls30c25,000$7,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,599.941,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed Lakers53c24,176$12,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,362.6915247.4%72 W · 80 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Bulls49c20,408$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00021944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Bulls48c20,000$9,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,700.2235450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9499…cf66backed Bulls0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd527…42e5backed Lakers52c19,213$9,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,222.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Lakers53c19,017$10,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,009.241,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bulls21c18,913$3,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,923.358,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed Bulls49c18,884$9,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,253.1511654.3%63 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Bulls25c17,887$4,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,407.81,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Bulls47c17,231$8,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,098.5730845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d75…c09fbacked Bulls47c17,043$8,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,0102334.8%8 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-43.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x5d07…1752backed Bulls49c16,608$8,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,138.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Lakers62c16,029$9,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,130.642,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x564c…014cbacked Lakers51c15,686$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,686.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Lakers53c15,100$7,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,164.9827251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Bulls37c15,000$5,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,599.9977348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x880a…e678backed Bulls49c14,993$7,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,327.362955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Lakers52c13,335$6,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,402.142,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc75a…8a8fbacked Lakers51c12,881$6,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,311.114100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+99.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Lakers51c12,730$6,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,237.761851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7a6…89b2backed Bulls47c12,500$5,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,87514244.4%63 W · 79 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe656…f009backed Bulls49c12,367$6,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,059.83633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-45.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Lakers73c11,655$8,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,135.915,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14b9…b6a9backed Bulls1c11,390$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105427.8%15 W · 39 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a61…b560backed Bulls22c11,355$2,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,477.379640.6%39 W · 57 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Bulls48c10,710$5,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,093.164,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Bulls26c10,395$2,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,689.6846940.3%189 W · 280 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…cca9backed Lakers51c10,023$5,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,902.120551.2%105 W · 100 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Lakers52c10,000$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,80039842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Lakers53c10,000$5,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,7002,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe12a…67efbacked Lakers54c10,000$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,60015841.1%65 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc04…f726backed Bulls52c10,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,20020746.4%96 W · 111 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Bulls49c10,000$4,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,879.9969149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Lakers52c10,000$5,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,759.9919747.7%94 W · 103 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe734…8f6abacked Lakers52c9,969$5,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,754.919150.8%97 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Lakers53c9,964$5,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,728.934,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Lakers52c9,727$5,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,624.083,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbb66…8e37backed Bulls48c9,690$4,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,642.53250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Bulls43c9,634$4,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,112.6715250.7%77 W · 75 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Lakers52c9,500$4,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,559.9958449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Lakers52c9,181$4,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,422.919,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Bulls28c8,879$2,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,469.242,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed Bulls50c8,044$4,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,021.9913455.2%74 W · 60 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9166…b479backed Lakers80c8,000$6,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6001668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Bulls30c7,606$2,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,276.331,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Bulls16c7,340$1,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,160.9447535.8%170 W · 305 L+41.1wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+26.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x19a0…ac39backed Lakers66c7,307$4,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,453.5614751%75 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Lakers51c7,000$3,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,42035251.1%180 W · 172 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Lakers53c6,877$3,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,207.12,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf35…b5eabacked Lakers51c6,767$3,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,315.8313239.4%52 W · 80 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x79e5…9417backed Lakers63c6,585$4,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,432.796165.6%40 W · 21 L+5.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+6.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c42…da3cbacked Lakers51c6,501$3,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,185.4914055.7%78 W · 62 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c28…7ba5backed Bulls49c6,500$3,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,168.3213148.9%64 W · 67 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12fd…90c0backed Bulls47c6,348$2,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,983.7628439.8%113 W · 171 L+0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Bulls7c6,003$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.8583039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Bulls47c5,957$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,80041954.4%228 W · 191 L+1.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1e1…f855backed Lakers51c5,945$3,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,913.2928742.9%123 W · 164 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Bulls0c5,820$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.458820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Lakers50c5,782$2,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,890.7672450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x699f…c3a9backed Lakers53c5,660$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,660.383938.5%15 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2580…1d56backed Lakers52c5,600$2,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,667.2611737.6%44 W · 73 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Bulls47c5,295$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50076746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed67…77c2backed Lakers50c5,256$2,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,627.75250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21a2…5f83backed Lakers51c5,222$2,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,558.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Bulls3c5,186$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9167911%75 W · 604 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa568…97e5backed Bulls49c5,144$2,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,520.7720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb48f…d015backed Bulls48c5,066$2,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,41012454.8%68 W · 56 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4215…d6fdbacked Bulls48c5,037$2,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,408.21250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Lakers51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,45032039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Bulls24c5,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20080146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6d0…9391backed Bulls49c4,971$2,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,435.6327247.1%128 W · 144 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7e8…862fbacked Bulls49c4,851$2,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,376.86250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3df…d618backed Lakers50c4,740$2,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,369.9250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b70…6de8backed Lakers52c4,699$2,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,239.41250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x438f…b477backed Lakers52c4,656$2,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,232.7250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7791…af80backed Bulls47c4,642$2,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,182.577441.9%31 W · 43 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6880…5efdbacked Bulls48c4,167$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Bulls27c4,108$1,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,107.083,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Lakers52c4,028$2,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,950.646,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc928…a64dbacked Lakers51c3,934$2,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,914.43366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+39%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.