TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-03-15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$218,669

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $218,669 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed No10c33,752$3,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,432.183,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes68c22,356$15,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,159.0675142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No21c15,382$3,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,161.652,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4408…1b6abacked No70c8,680$6,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,105.583743.2%16 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6185…2965backed No71c6,790$4,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,8211338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick59cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes29c6,061$1,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,325.9769851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef21…3dc9backed Yes30c3,480$1,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,436450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No19c2,872$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.31,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d8…99aebacked No70c2,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.985655.4%31 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes29c1,494$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,066.981,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5714…5822backed Yes30c1,304$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab75…cce0backed No71c1,281$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.7770%0 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No71c1,119$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.2462452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No2c1,077$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.531,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed No8c1,076$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.8981732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Yes30c876.67$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.671855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+45.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Yes30c833.33$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.3318840.4%76 W · 112 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e52…00f5backed No12c833.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006844.1%30 W · 38 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+46%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe706…89bcbacked Yes27c820.67$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.6711843.2%51 W · 67 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed No23c820.53$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.3439857.5%229 W · 169 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No28c807.84$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.5153645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked No70c800$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5607847.4%37 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1748…a816backed Yes30c723.33$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.331741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed No73c700$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51131145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d3b…63b7backed Yes30c680$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4761100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f5c…9e02backed No71c569.32$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.22771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick49cpaid+56.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcddb…0d22backed No73c557.35$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.87966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed No8c543.46$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1330647.1%144 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked No71c507.92$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.62771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick49cpaid+56.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f4d…ebdebacked No73c500$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365650%3 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-33.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1002…1ef5backed No46c448.32$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2062839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf438…de5dbacked Yes30c419.77$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.841942.1%8 W · 11 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick25cpaid+126.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Yes29c400.01$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.0135856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3542…24f0backed Yes27c370.37$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.371181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.6wins+0.33per pick49cpaid+76.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes29c344.83$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.834542.2%19 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed Yes53c339.62$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.626245.2%28 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No71c300$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21316045%72 W · 88 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc16f…0f4fbacked No71c300$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21310855.6%60 W · 48 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Yes29c297.99$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.5756951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Yes29c297.3$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.9122047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6070…88a8backed No29c280.49$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.281258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick37cpaid+44.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1966…da9ebacked No47c269.57$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1268050%40 W · 40 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed No71c250$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.520251%103 W · 99 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes30c220$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15433945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed No21c208.57$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6814734.7%51 W · 96 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c86…15c0backed No49c204.92$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017652.3%92 W · 84 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…0b60backed No72c200$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1442161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…19e9backed Yes27c185.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.163426.5%9 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe758…c5afbacked Yes55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.82250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Yes29c167.16$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.955752.6%30 W · 27 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cb7…7a94backed Yes31c161.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.2910946.8%51 W · 58 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xceb7…8b33backed No71c141.85$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.71366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+53.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed Yes27c141$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.61747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+44.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4865…904dbacked No71c140.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004463.6%28 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ebf…2da0backed Yes53c120.17$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.073759.5%22 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x917b…e433backed No71c119.44$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+53.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Yes55c117.93$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.0218353%97 W · 86 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No71c113$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.236251.6%32 W · 30 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x48aa…2eeebacked No71c110.75$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.631040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f25…f96dbacked Yes28c110.59$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03e6…24e6backed No71c110.56$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+56.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed No71c106.5$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.6210943.1%47 W · 62 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Yes29c105.91$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.5425850.4%130 W · 128 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc83…215cbacked No74c105.28$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.911566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Yes29c100$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7133047.3%156 W · 174 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes29c100$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7142046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a2b…d4e9backed Yes56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441560%9 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd82a…5fcfbacked No73c100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734456.8%25 W · 19 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+23.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd744…af4abacked Yes53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+37%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked No44c99.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4434655.5%192 W · 154 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa15…270ebacked No71c99.79$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.85580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+72.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed No72c99.18$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.3121450%107 W · 107 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce4d…ade4backed No44c95.94$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.221346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35b8…898abacked No48c83.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402450%12 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Yes29c80$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.0714756.5%83 W · 64 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6680…0535backed No71c77.58$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.08250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed No70c76.1$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.279048.9%44 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13e5…1ea5backed No71c73.44$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.14425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…4638backed No71c72.86$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.73250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b2c…5e10backed No71c70.42$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011250.9%57 W · 55 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd76b…1d4dbacked Yes57c70.18$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked No73c68.49$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5037344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x88bc…fc0dbacked No71c61.07$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.36580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+72.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Yes29c60.27$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.7912157.9%70 W · 51 L+8.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b05…7b7dbacked No71c58.21$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.33944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf33…4f09backed No71c53.77$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.18475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+61.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed No46c50.12$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.068950.6%45 W · 44 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x51e5…da69backed No72c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1310258.8%60 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd402…5a50backed Yes51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.51353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xddd7…1596backed No72c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3625855.4%143 W · 115 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffff…4413backed No20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0912141.3%50 W · 71 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes29c49.98$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.483721.6%8 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-35.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f3a…b960backed Yes53c44.96$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.173100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+49.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x41c7…c3f1backed No73c43.39$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c7d…d1c9backed Yes58c43.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5218…48d9backed No71c42.94$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.49850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca32…47f0backed No71c40.8$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.97250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Yes67c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c16…1ca9backed No73c37.01$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf69c…44dbbacked No71c35.11$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.93650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.