Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ecea2b5ca5439d857016b0a72259626f4f6c3230cec76389042783dbf9406f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,861
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,861 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d11…c449backed Yes | 28c | 16,206$4,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,537.68 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 72c | 12,436$8,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,481.94 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 10,636$8,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,583.53 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 72c | 5,793$4,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,621.93 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 25c | 5,208$1,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,302.51 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc4…803dbacked Yes | 27c | 3,070$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 2,958$2,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.92 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b93…e941backed No | 73c | 2,056$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.08 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe726…4c87backed Yes | 28c | 1,884$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.55 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 72c | 1,650$1,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd179…361ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3520…1fa0backed Yes | 27c | 1,296$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 1,210$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.78 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 27c | 1,117$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed No | 72c | 1,041$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.48 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 9c | 931.5$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.43 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 79c | 768.67$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.73 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…f52fbacked Yes | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked No | 72c | 420$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 28c | 390$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed No | 72c | 369.6$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.49 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 73c | 313$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.51 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Yes | 27c | 309.9$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.67 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 72c | 309$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.52 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 27c | 305$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.35 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked No | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 108 | 55.6%60 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd744…af4abacked Yes | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +37%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed No | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 121 | 62.8%76 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 28c | 203.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8136…772cbacked No | 73c | 200$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…0b60backed No | 73c | 199.99$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked No | 72c | 197.49$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 87 | 64.4%56 W · 31 L | +10.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed No | 72c | 196.97$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.15 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 25c | 157.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc587…1630backed No | 73c | 157.01$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 72c | 132.59$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Yes | 27c | 132$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 121 | 57.9%70 W · 51 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…1973backed Yes | 29c | 120.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 72c | 99.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 73c | 99.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe2…e1eebacked Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 73c | 89.04$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 75c | 88.2$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 77c | 80.35$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad9…3cb4backed Yes | 27c | 78.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 72c | 69.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 72c | 67.86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 28c | 67.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed No | 73c | 65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 23c | 56.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…da69backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 107 | 71%76 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3a…b960backed No | 77c | 48.51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…7f69backed Yes | 27c | 44.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 73c | 41.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 27c | 40.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 73c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 73c | 36.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 121 | 65.3%79 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…33d5backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba6…13a3backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…47fabacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 95 | 64.2%61 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b38…a036backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed No | 73c | 19.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7311…7bd6backed No | 73c | 19.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed No | 77c | 17.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x093b…4e14backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-03-15?Yes won
- Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-03-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.