Token Launches · resolved market
Over $7M committed to the Fabric public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72618de95e614c1f4f7e7ad7488eeef140498767a7378381dddb3253df5587d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $138,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $146,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd339…0b65backed Yes | 67c | 14,805$9,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,955.77 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d32…0fb9backed No | 80c | 7,677$6,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560.38 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.35per pick | 56cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 7,059$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.23 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed Yes | 36c | 6,953$2,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,490.89 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 1c | 3,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c9…0f2bbacked No | 19c | 3,484$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,807.84 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +13.4wins | +0.24per pick | 31cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c6…24cfbacked No | 74c | 2,806$2,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed No | 57c | 2,517$1,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,070.08 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…d38cbacked No | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,740 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +13.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed No | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbba8…f383backed Yes | 1c | 1,561$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,411$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.89 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba5…5f1cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,050$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 31c | 1,033$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.59 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +230.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,007$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…6033backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…93a7backed No | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 977.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…1812backed No | 42c | 800$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 43c | 799.99$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.99 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…160ebacked No | 65c | 771.53$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.53 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 747.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 9c | 717.71$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad3…c0abbacked Yes | 61c | 600$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe955…3b03backed No | 51c | 555$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.95 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f78…1141backed Yes | 5c | 549.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…dc5cbacked No | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3df7…f332backed No | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…43cfbacked Yes | 64c | 500$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf408…b738backed Yes | 30c | 468$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.62 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60e…3f04backed No | 50c | 455$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.43 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…d9e8backed Yes | 44c | 452.04$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…0b4dbacked Yes | 12c | 423.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…2a23backed Yes | 3c | 414.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 4c | 370.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 325$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked No | 64c | 310$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.6 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…a75fbacked No | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +5.8wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked No | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +11.3wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2d06…00d4backed No | 26c | 284.05$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.19 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +12.3wins | +0.28per pick | 40cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…9337backed No | 73c | 272.79$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.79 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc05f…9b56backed No | 58c | 257.25$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.25 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed No | 48c | 200$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +7.0wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6520…cf00backed No | 43c | 199.98$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.99 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…5cb2backed No | 39c | 181.56$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.56 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 50c | 162$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.16 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff6…7c5cbacked No | 73c | 158.68$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.51 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbebf…4e07backed No | 36c | 149.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.33 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc416…8bd5backed No | 45c | 142.65$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c64…1555backed Yes | 16c | 140$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +5.6wins | +0.24per pick | 32cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 24c | 137.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 72 | 15.3%11 W · 61 L | -17.0wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 30c | 133.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 69 | 11.6%8 W · 61 L | -8.4wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 19c | 117.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d82…5a00backed No | 43c | 117.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…fda5backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaeee…f065backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +8.5wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9620…5052backed No | 71c | 95.07$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b69…66b0backed No | 53c | 92.11$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x713d…53a9backed Yes | 25c | 88.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…5499backed Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd585…74bdbacked No | 76c | 75.8$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3c…459fbacked No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf88…3ed6backed Yes | 43c | 70.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 63c | 68.33$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9d…c3eebacked No | 79c | 58.39$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd02…6bbdbacked Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…37adbacked No | 45c | 51.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7f3cbacked No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0418…966ebacked No | 74c | 42.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +4.5wins | +0.30per pick | 63cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 40c | 41.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0694…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 35.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…ff0dbacked No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 45c | 29.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…2f24backed No | 79c | 25.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…50dbbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 66c | 16.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $7M committed to the Fabric public sale?this page
- Over $10M committed to the Fabric public sale?No won
- Over $15M committed to the Fabric public sale?No won
- Over $20M committed to the Fabric public sale?No won
- Over $2M committed to the Fabric public sale?Yes won
- Over $3M committed to the Fabric public sale?Yes won
- Over $4M committed to the Fabric public sale?No won
- Over $5M committed to the Fabric public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.