Token Launches · resolved market
Over $10M committed to the Fabric public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc05314adbc1435df0d94548fd678218aeda536676bdfb3cca47c119b58281237
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 9,254$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd339…0b65backed Yes | 64c | 3,794$2,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,441.48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 0c | 3,687$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -90%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56bf…3f74backed Yes | 1c | 3,153$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…b608backed Yes | 38c | 2,652$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.38 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +5.8wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +340.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +13.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c9…0f2bbacked No | 39c | 1,722$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,057.07 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +13.4wins | +0.24per pick | 31cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb741…a996backed Yes | 34c | 1,489$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +7.9wins | +0.28per pick | 43cpaid | +119%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 41c | 1,200$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed Yes | 34c | 1,123$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.94 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…2609backed Yes | 36c | 1,007$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 911.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed No | 50c | 812.07$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.59 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +7.0wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 675.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 2c | 661.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed No | 63c | 629.38$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.16 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed No | 69c | 569.75$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 519.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf408…b738backed Yes | 14c | 504.75$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2170…dc18backed Yes | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -73%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 10c | 485.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 10c | 462.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +230.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 29c | 444.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.79 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 11c | 441.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 317.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d06…00d4backed No | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +12.3wins | +0.28per pick | 40cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 290.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbebf…4e07backed No | 60c | 247$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.44 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…99f3backed Yes | 11c | 242.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 26cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed Yes | 5c | 218$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc05f…9b56backed No | 75c | 207.85$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.62 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…43cfbacked Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 8c | 161.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 9c | 155.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 69 | 11.6%8 W · 61 L | -8.4wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b2…ee3ebacked Yes | 35c | 144$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +298.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0694…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 131.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…5499backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 11c | 110.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 72 | 15.3%11 W · 61 L | -17.0wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked No | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x941e…9775backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaeee…f065backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +8.5wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…5cb2backed No | 55c | 90.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d82…5a00backed No | 56c | 88.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6520…cf00backed No | 60c | 88.75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e37…cccbbacked No | 57c | 86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7187…4859backed No | 69c | 75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 29c | 70.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 21c | 69.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked No | 80c | 68$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…37adbacked No | 61c | 57.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x145c…f538backed Yes | 38c | 48.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 65c | 36.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5c…4e6abacked No | 72c | 32.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d32…0fb9backed No | 49c | 31.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.35per pick | 56cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9620…5052backed No | 76c | 26.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…07cdbacked No | 60c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $10M committed to the Fabric public sale?this page
- Over $15M committed to the Fabric public sale?No won
- Over $20M committed to the Fabric public sale?No won
- Over $2M committed to the Fabric public sale?Yes won
- Over $3M committed to the Fabric public sale?Yes won
- Over $4M committed to the Fabric public sale?No won
- Over $5M committed to the Fabric public sale?No won
- Over $7M committed to the Fabric public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.